More than 9pc of US polyethylene (PE) exports will need to find a new home if the Brazilian government moves forward with a recommendation that would nearly triple provisional anti-dumping duties on imports of US PE.
The proposal, made by Brazil's department of trade defense Decom, calculated a duty of $734.32/metric tonne for US exporters, up from current provisional anti-dumping duties of $199.04/t on US-origin PE.
The proposals for Canada are not nearly as steep, with one Canadian producer facing new anti-dumping duties of $264.99/t and another facing $232/t. The current provisional anti-dumping duty for Canada is $238.49/t.
A final decision on making the proposed duties permanent is not expected until mid-May.
While some volumes will still likely be able to move from Canada under the new proposal, the higher US duties would effectively cut off Brazil as an export option for US producers, forcing them to find new alternative destinations.
"Does that choke off US-sourced imports from going into Brazil? If it does, where does [that volume] go," said one North American PE producer. "It has to go somewhere."
From January through November 2025, the US exported 1.268mn t of PE to Brazil, representing 9.2pc of total exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. That represented an average of more than 115,000t of material a month, though volumes began to decline sharply in October and November, with total volumes in November down to 83,768t.
The current provisional anti-dumping duties were imposed in August 2025, but had a limited effect on Brazil's imports last year, as the US remained Brazil's top supplier, even as it lost market share, official Comexstat data from Brazil showed.
"Some people were able to limp along with the $200/t duty, but this [proposed duty] doubles your price," said one US exporter. "It kills it [trade] at that point."
Another US exporter said most of its customers in Brazil have already stopped discussions about US material. A few customers had long-term contracts that lasted through the end of the year, but those customers will no longer buy US material in 2026, the trader said.
"Our clients, even with the $199/t duty were reluctant. It's become a moot point — $734/t is crazy. How can you do that?" the trader said.
Brazil is not self-sufficient, and will still need PE imports, but traders said they expect Brazilian customers to turn to material from the Middle East or Asia to fill in supply gaps. That will result in a trade shift, with material from the US filling in gaps that Middle Eastern or Asian material used to fill.
"Brazil has to be filled in with something, and that will starve other markets," said the US exporter. "I think you will see a shifting of trade routes, and the markets will still balance."
The exporter said Europe and Africa are likely to become new top destinations for US material.
