US-Israeli attacks on Iran that started this weekend bringing vessel operators in the strait of Hormuz to a halt will likely disrupt some paraxylene (PX) trade flows from Saudi Arabia to the US.
Saudi Arabia supplies 56pc of US PX imports, according to Global Trade Tracker data. About half of those volumes load from Rabigh on the Red Sea and bypass the strait of Hormuz entirely, leaving those flows largely unaffected.
But the remaining volumes load from Jubail on Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf coast. Cargoes from Jubail normally transit the strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman before sailing to US Gulf Coast ports. Many shipowners now refuse to transit the strait because of security and insurance concerns, effectively restricting east coast Saudi Arabian export flows.
Fewer exports from Jubail could tighten supply on the US Gulf coast, where PX demand remains relatively strong.
US PX is primarily traded on a contract basis, which could limit immediate spot volatility. But sustained disruptions could force buyers to seek replacement barrels, supporting US Gulf coast PX prices. Higher freight and insurance costs could further lift delivered spot prices, according to a trader.
US producers could offset part of the shortfall by raising domestic PX output through higher PX unit operating rates and increased use of selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) units, depending on margins. Market participants did note that higher nitration-grade toluene spot prices may not provide a high enough margin to benzene for producers to justify increasing STDP rates.
If US production of PX does not increase, derivative polyethylene terephthalate (PET) consumers may increase PET imports to obtain the necessary downstream volumes, as most PX is used as feedstock for PET production.
Upstream, US toluene and mixed xylene markets face less direct exposure. Most US imports of those products originate from east Asia rather than the Persian Gulf, limiting Hormuz-related risk. Toluene and mixed xylenes prices could rise in relation to higher crude and gasoline futures, but any price movement is unlikely to be connected to any direct supply and demand fundamentals.
Spot toluene price discussions have increased by a modest 4¢/USG so far on 2 March to 285-305¢/USG, according to marked feedback. The increase in price discussions is more likely related to strong chemical demand than any impact from the US-Israel fighting with Iran. By contrast, offers for 843-grade mixed xylene rose by 30.56¢/USG to 312.06¢/USG from 281.5¢/USG, according to market feedback. Blend-grade, 843-grade mixed xylene is used as a gasoline blending component and is heavily affected by higher gasoline futures. RBOB gasoline futures rose by 29.27¢/USG over the weekend to settle at 237.06¢/USG on 2 March.
Spot US PX closed at $1,073.03/t on 27 February, according to the most recent weekly Argus assessment. US PET resin February contract prices last settled 1.5¢/lb higher on 27 February at 55-59¢/lb, mirroring an upstream increase in paraxylene (PX) contract prices — which rose by 3¢/lb to settle at 52¢/lb for the month.
President Donald Trump said the US is prepared for the Iran conflict to last four to five weeks.
