Northwest European propane prices have fallen to their lowest since the war between the US and Iran began, under pressure from weakening demand and ample supply even with continued disruption in the strait of Hormuz.
The outright Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) large cargo propane assessment was $650/t on 15 April, down by $323.75/t from the post-war peak of $973.75/t on 19 March and the lowest since the war began on 28 February.
The assessment is $85.75/t above where it was before the conflict.
Prevailing fundamentals are likely to allow prices to fall further. Spot offers for propane have increased in Europe and in Asia-Pacific, surpassing demand needs.
Norway's state-controlled Equinor on Wednesday offered an early-May ToT23 cargo, priced at a fully-floating basis, equivalent to a premium of $109/t to May paper. There were no bids, with regional buyers willing to pay a much smaller premium and indications that some are even looking for discounts.
Seasonal factors are weighing on demand. Europe has entered spring, when warmer temperatures allow for heating consumption to fade. The region continues to receive sufficient amounts of US LPG, even though the war in the Middle East has removed around 30pc of global seaborne supply.
US inflows were 508,000t in March, according to data from Kpler, which is about the average monthly amount Europe received in 2024 before the region was flooded with US product in 2025.
Today, European propane cif ARA paper for May was trading about $5/t below Wednesday's close, and with no recent bidding attempts in the physical market, any paper losses quickly transmit to the spot benchmark assessment.
In Asia-Pacific, the spot market has seen more offers than bids in recent days and tightness has eased. The Argus Far East Index (AFEI) swap contract for May has not fallen as far as the equivalent cif ARA, but closed at a one week low on Wednesday, fell by around $20/t early today, and could be at a one-month low by tonight's close.
Asia-Pacific buyers are reluctant to commit to prompt spot supply, with conflicting messages about the prospects for a Hormuz reopening, and are choosing to wait. A steep May–July backwardation of $180/t provides a strong incentive to defer purchases, allowing those able to wait to secure discounts of close to $200/t to current prices.
For Europe this leaves more US LPG available, allowing prices to fall further.
Global balances therefore appear increasingly favourable to buyers, even as a resolution to the conflict remains uncertain and the strait of Hormuz stays closed.
