UK not yet on track to meet 2030 climate target

The UK government revealed in its revised net zero plan today that quantified emissions savings only deliver 92pc of its 2030 climate target. But it said it expects the gap to be closed by "unquantified policies" such as the UK Green Taxonomy and its carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) programme.

The government reiterated that it is committed to delivering on its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — or emissions pledge — but it acknowledged that planned emissions savings are not yet enough to hit the target. The UK has committed to legally binding goals to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, as well as reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 68pc by 2030 and by 78pc by 2035, compared with 1990 levels.

The government was legally required to update its net zero strategy by the end of this month following a High Court ruling last year. The court found that neither the UK's parliament nor the public were informed that the country's strategy only accounts for 95pc of the emissions cuts needed to meet its sixth carbon budget, covering the period 2033-37.

The government identified a gap of 32mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in the sixth carbon budget, with quantified policies accounting for 97pc of the savings required, but it is confident the target can be met through policies that have not yet been taken into account and further measures yet to be detailed.

"Examples of areas where we expect some further savings are areas of future research in the agriculture and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, as well as policies to further improve the energy efficiency of buildings and place-based transport interventions that will reduce emissions locally," the report said.

Quantified measures include policies that have yet to be finalised, such as an offshore wind environmental package meant to support deployment which will be introduced through the Energy Bill. They also include the government's solar roadmap, which is due to be published in response to recent recommendations from member of parliament Chris Skidmore, and the biomass strategy set to be released in the second quarter of this year.

"We expect the world to change between now and the end of Carbon Budget 6, so we expect that the package of proposals and policies will evolve to adapt to changing circumstances, new evidence, to utilise technological developments and address emerging challenges," the report noted.

Unquantified measures include the delivery of the UK Green Taxonomy — to give investors clear definitions of what can be considered 'green'. Consultation on the taxonomy could start in the autumn. They also incorporate the use of the new UK Infrastructure Bank and the Clean Growth Fund launched in 2020, the UK's CCUS plans — the track 1 and track 2 schemes — as well as the phasing out of new and replacement gas boilers by 2035 at the latest.

By Caroline Varin