Argus AgriMarkets Outlook

The service covers global grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils across key producing and consuming regions.

Commodities covered:

• Grains: Wheat, corn, barley.
• Oilseeds: Soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed.
• Vegetable oils: Rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, soybean oil, canola oil, palm oil.

Regional coverage includes:

• Europe (France, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Black Sea region).
• North America (US, Canada).
• Latin America (Brazil, Argentina).
• Asia-Pacific (Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India, Australia).

Argus AgriMarkets Outlook is a weekly and monthly forecasting service providing proprietary supply and demand data, 15-month price outlooks and expert crop analysis for global grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils markets. It enables traders, millers, fertilizer producers and biofuel analysts to plan, negotiate and manage risk with confidence.

The service provides 15-month price forecasts for key markets, including:

• Wheat fob Rouen (France) and wheat Romania-Bulgaria fob CVB.
• Corn Romania-Bulgaria fob CVB and corn Ukraine fob.
• Rapeseed oil fob Dutch mill and sunflower oil fob northwest Europe.
• Wheat SRW fob US Gulf coast and corn fob US Gulf coast.
• Soybean oil US Gulf coast, canola oil fob Vancouver.
• Soybean oil Brazil fob Paranagua and soybean oil Argentina waterborne fob upriver.
• Palm oil futures Bursa Malaysia.

Three wheat crop tours are conducted each year in Ukraine, Russia and Romania: one before winter, one in spring and one before harvest. An additional corn crop tour covering Ukraine is conducted in August. A wheat crop tour in France is also conducted before harvest.

Each tour provides:

• Regional and national crop condition assessments.
• Yield estimates and production forecasts.
• Export availability, logistics, trade and weather-driven risk analysis.

The service is delivered through the Argus AgriMarkets Outlook dedicated interactive online dashboard, which provides access to:

• Weekly webinar recordings and slide decks.
• The monthly thought leadership report and downloadable spreadsheet.
• Proprietary supply and demand datasets available for download.
• All previous issues and historical data.

The service includes both weekly and monthly deliverables:

• Weekly: Webinar and slide deck covering recent developments, forward-looking analysis and updated price forecasts.
• Monthly: Thought leadership report with updated supply and demand forecasts and 15-month price outlooks.

Argus AgriMarkets is a daily price assessment and market intelligence service providing cash prices, news and analysis. Argus AgriMarkets Outlook complements this with a forward-looking perspective, including proprietary supply and demand forecasts, 15-month price outlooks, crop tour reports and biofeedstock demand data. The two services can be combined for full market coverage from daily price discovery to long-range planning.

The service is produced by Argus analysts with direct industry expertise and experience, including agronomists. Analysis is led by the Head of Biofuels and Agriculture Analytics and the Editor of Argus AgriMarkets Outlook, drawing on Argus Media's global consulting and analytics capabilities.

Yes. Subscribers can download proprietary supply and demand forecast data directly from the Argus AgriMarkets Outlook dashboard. Data is available by region and commodity, covering wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed, vegetable oils and biofeedstock demand.

Yes. The service includes monthly biofeedstock demand data and forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel, HVO and SAF across Europe, North America and Latin America, with breakdowns by feedstock type including rapeseed oil, soybean oil, canola oil, palm oil, waste oils and sugarcane ethanol.

Corn and wheat prices fluctuate due to a variety of interrelated factors including weather conditions, supply and demand dynamics, government policies, global market trends, and production costs. Adverse weather such as droughts or floods can reduce crop yields, driving prices up. Conversely, favourable weather increases supply, which can lower prices. Demand from industries like biofuels, livestock feed, and food processing, as well as export demand, heavily impact pricing. Additionally, trade policies, tariffs, and subsidies can affect market stability. Global economic conditions and currency fluctuations further influence prices by affecting the competitiveness of exports. Monitoring these key drivers helps understand the volatility in corn and wheat markets.

Corn and wheat prices in global Agriculture markets typically move when the market’s view of supply, demand and trade balance changes. Key drivers include:

• Weather and crop conditions: Drought, excessive rainfall, heat stress or frost can quickly alter yield expectations and tighten the perceived wheat and corn supply outlook.
• Yield estimates and production forecasts: As planting progress, crop ratings and regional yield assumptions are updated, the market reprices forward availability.
• Demand signals: Feed and processing needs influence how much wheat and corn buyers are willing to pay, especially when margins shift for livestock feed and ethanol-linked demand.
• Export availability and logistics: Changes in origin competitiveness, shipping capacity, inspection rules or export restrictions can affect how much wheat and corn are available to move between regions.
• Futures and risk sentiment: Futures prices often lead cash markets when traders adjust expectations for the coming months. Positioning and risk premiums can amplify moves around major reports.
• Energy and biofuel economics: When biodiesel and renewable diesel economics improve, demand for vegetable oil feedstocks can strengthen, which can indirectly influence broader oilseed and grain-linked expectations through cross-market signals.

In practice, wheat and corn price direction is rarely driven by one factor. It’s the interaction between updated supply/demand assumptions and how quickly the market believes those changes will affect the final balance.