Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Últimas notícias do mercado

Crude Summit: Completion doubts abound for new refining

  • Mercados: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 17/02/23

Nearly 1mn b/d of new US refining capacity is under construction or planned for investment in the coming years, but many of those projects are unlikely to be completed on time or at all.

Having faced multiple refinery closures since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic — and with further closures such as LyondellBasell's 265,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery slated for 2023 — US refined product markets hang in the balance of a small number of in-progress and proposed projects.

But of an estimated 807,000 b/d of US brownfield and greenfield refineries currently planned or under construction, 52pc are seen as having a low probability of completion, according to energy consultancy IIR Energy.

"IRR Energy has all of these at low probability right now and they will not be increasing probability until they [the refineries] reach final investment decision," IIR Energy market correspondent Hillary Stevenson said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas.

A 250,000 b/d refinery project from start-up Prairie Energy, proposed for either Texas or Oklahoma, makes up the bulk of proposed US greenfield refinery builds.

While Prairie Energy's refinery and MMEX's long-proposed 12,000 b/d refinery in Fort Stockton, Texas, focus on low-carbon processes, Red Leaf's proposed 40,000 b/d Duchesne, Utah, refinery will specialize in the waxy crude produced in the Uinta basin. Two greenfield facilities planned by Meridian in North Dakota and Texas total an additional 115,000 b/d of capacity.

"Do I think any of them will happen? Definitely not in the timelines stated," Stevenson said.

Even if the 417,000 b/d of currently-planned US capacity comes online, it pales in comparison to the 1.8mn b/d of projects in Mexico, Nigeria and the Middle East — all of which are under construction or in final commissioning stages with expected upstarts in 2023 and 2024.

Despite the lion's share of new capacity coming from non-US countries, the refining industry is still bullish on its future as the world's largest refining hub.

"The US will be a refining powerhouse because of the cost position here and the access to advantaged crudes and a strong export capability," Phillips 66 chief executive Mark Lashier said yesterday. Even as US gasoline demand stagnates, the country is well-positioned to export finished products, he said.


Compartilhar
Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more