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Webinars

Coking Coal Outlook: China Supply Shocks and Price Trends

Semi-Live
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 7:30am GMT and 2:30pm GMT

Australian premium low-volatility hard coking coal prices surged above $300/t cfr China in September, driven by a series of supply disruptions across key producing regions. Reduced domestic coal production in China following mining accidents and intensified safety inspections, constrained Mongolian exports caused by diesel shortages, and an outage at the Longview high-vol A mine in the US following an August fire all contributed to tightening supply and supporting prices.

However, market sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. Prices have retreated from their highs as Chinese buyers adopt a more cautious approach, and confidence weakens across the market.

At the same time, demand fundamentals remain under pressure. Chinese steelmakers continue to face challenging margins, limiting their ability to absorb higher raw material costs, while Indian buyers remain cautious amid thin profitability and comfortable inventory levels. Falling domestic Chinese coking coal prices have further reduced appetite for spot purchases, leading many market participants to anticipate a period of price stabilisation or further downside pressure.

Join Argus experts as they examine the supply disruptions that drove the recent rally, assess how key trade flows have responded, and explore what the market could expect heading into 2027.

Register for webinar

Register even if you aren't available on the day - we'll send you a link to the webinar recording

What we'll cover

China's Supply Shock: From Accident to Price Rally
How mining accidents, safety inspections and tighter domestic production in China triggered a sharp rise in global coking coal prices.
Indonesia Met Coke: Trade Flows Under Pressure
How higher coking coal costs are affecting Indonesian met coke production, competitiveness and export trade flows.
CFR India: Buyers Push Back
Why Indian buyers are resisting higher spot prices, and what this means for demand, procurement strategies and regional market dynamics.
Supply Recovery: How Fast Can Supply Return?
An assessment of production recovery prospects across China, Mongolia, the US and other key exporting regions, and the potential impact on prices.
H1 2027 Outlook: Risks and Opportunities Ahead
What market participants should expect in the first half of 2027, including key supply, demand and pricing risks that could shape the coking coal market.

Why register

  • Assess the implications for trade flows, procurement strategies, and pricing across Asia
    Gain insight into how Chinese policy decisions continue to influence global supply and demand balances
  • Market price analysis
    Understand the key factors behind the recent surge in coking coal prices
  • Stay ahead of potential risks and opportunities in a rapidly evolving market
    Hear expert analysis on the outlook for met coal and met coke markets through H1 2027
SteelRawMaterials

Speakers

Jing Zhi Ng Ng
Metals Editor, Argus Media

Ng Jing Zhi joined Argus Media in 2021 and is currently an editor for the Asia ferrous scrap and coking coal markets. Jing Zhi has over ten years of experience in market analytics and price reporting, specializing in the ferrous sector and oil markets. Found in 1970, Argus Media is the leading independent provider of market intelligence to the global energy and commodity markets.

Tim Hard
SVP, Energy Transition, Argus Media

Tim heads up the Argus Hydrogen and Future Fuels Service and does BD for metals, where he established physical and financial benchmarks in global ferrous markets for Argus, Platts and The Steel Index. Previously a strategy consultant at CRU Group, Tim holds an MBA from Aston Business School.

Alex Thackrah
Senior Manager, Analytics & Consulting (Coal), Argus Media

Alex produces Argus’ thermal and metallurgical coal price and supply/demand projections as part of the Seaborne Coal Outlook service. He has spent 13 years covering commodities, including natural gas, LNG and agricultural markets, at various price reporting agencies.

FAQs

Premium low-vol hard coking coal is the seaborne coking coal benchmark grade, predominantly supplied from Queensland, Australia. Its coking properties make it the reference grade for global met coal pricing.

 Prices have retreated as Chinese buyers adopt a more cautious approach, Chinese steelmakers face challenging margins that limit their ability to absorb higher raw material costs, Indian buyers remain cautious amid thin profitability and comfortable inventories, and falling domestic Chinese coking coal prices have further reduced appetite for spot purchases.

 Indian buyers are cautious amid thin steelmaking margins and comfortable inventory levels, and are resisting higher spot prices — a stance that is influencing demand, procurement strategies and regional market dynamics.

Higher coking coal costs are pressuring Indonesian met coke production economics, competitiveness and export trade flows, which are examined in detail during the webinar.

The webinar covers what market participants should expect in the first half of 2027, including the key supply, demand and pricing risks that could shape the coking coal market.

The webinar is designed for coking coal and met coke traders, procurement leads at steel mills, mining suppliers, analysts and financial market participants tracking Asian ferrous raw materials.

The session is Simu-Live, broadcast at 07:30 GMT and 14:30 GMT on 28 October, with an on-demand recording available after the live sessions to registrants.

Complete the registration form on this page. Confirmation and joining details will be sent by email after submission.

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About Argus Media

Argus is the leading independent provider of market intelligence to the global energy and commodity markets, offering price assessments, news, analytics, consulting, data tools and industry conferences. Headquartered in London with 1,500 staff across 30 offices, Argus's metals experts provide in-depth pricing, news and analysis across nonferrous metals, rare earths and battery materials.