CME Group's north European hot-rolled coil (HRC) contract has set a new supplies record in February.
As of 12:46 GMT today, the equivalent of 40,410t had traded on the contract, up from the previous record of 40,300t reached last July.
The curve firmed considerably in brisk trade today. During the morning trading session in London, a March-April spread traded at minus €20/t, with outright prices at €1,000/t and €1,020/t. Slightly later May traded at a strong €1,050/t, showing a contango on the front months, before April traded at €1,060/t. March and April also traded at €940/t and €945/t on the CME screen, for just 60t.
March, April and May were all trading at significant premiums to Argus' underlying spot NWE HRC index, which was €950.25/t on 25 February, with a month-to-date average of €929.03/t.
The majority of European mills have pulled offers in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with some smaller spot-focused sellers suggesting they will return at €1,000/t for dry and €1,050/t base for pickled and oiled in the coming days.
Combined, Russia and Ukraine sold 2.6mn t of HRC into the EU last year, accounting for more than 28pc of the import market. There are also knock-on effects in other markets, which impact the EU — Ukraine's Metinvest alone sold almost 1mn t of HRC into Turkey last year, meaning there could be acute supply disruption in the country. Metinvest sold more than 1.6mn t of slab into Italy last year, while Russian mills are also big suppliers, meaning there also could be supply issues for slab-rolling HRC and plate mills.
