The unprecedented floods that have hit Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul starting on 29 April challenged the state's harvest progress and caused concerns related to crops conditions.
The state leads Brazil's rice and summer corn production and is expected to be the second-largest soybean producer in the 2023-24 crop. Harvesting works for oilseed, corn and rice were approaching their final stretches when rainfall intensified.
Rains have halted and in some cases completely paralyze
d activities,
while also ruining some crops.
Soybeans
Rio Grande do Sul's 2023-24 soybean crop is estimated at 22.2mn metric tonnes (t) by regional rural agency Emater-RS, while national supply company Conab expects 21.9mn t.
Both forecasts would be a record for the state, which would become the season's second-largest oilseed producer. Rio Grande do Sul would account for approximately 15pc of Brazil's soybean production.
The 2023-24 crop was 78pc harvested as of 9 May, advancing by 2 percentage points from a week prior, according to Emater-RS.
Activities were suspended in almost the entire state since the rainfall period began, with few exceptions. Farmers managed to advance works in the northwest and in the southern region known as Campanha — bordering Argentina and Uruguay — on 29-30 April, but reported problems because of the high moisture levels. Works in Campanha have resumed since 3 May.
Rio Grande do Sul's soybean harvest had maintained a weekly progress of at least 10 percentage points throughout April, while yields remained within a range of peaks of 5,400 kg/hectare (ha) in areas considered to produce excellent results and an average of approximately 3,000 kg/ha.
But the remaining 24pc of areas that had yet to be harvested when the flood began is set to register heavy losses, Emater-RS estimates. Storage units were also damaged, which may lead to cuts in a portion of production already counted as safe.
Farmers say that grain quality in the latest harvested areas is unsuitable and they have given up harvesting other remaining crops, as that has become economically unfeasible. The high humidity levels of these soybeans reduce their profitability considerably, hardly covering their production costs.
For the remaining 22pc still on fields, Emater-RS projects losses of 20-100pc. The agency has yet to officially revise downwards its 3,329 kg/ha yield estimate, but expects its outlook to decrease.
Rice
Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's largest rice producer and should account for over 70pc of the national output this season, according to Conab data.
The progress of rice harvesting was severely compromised by the heavy rainfall, with Conab estimating that works remain halted at 83pc since 28 April.
The location of remaining areas is another factor weighing on the delay. Rice is sowed in floodplains, which are difficult to access and now coincide with major flooding points in the state.
Crops in the Bage region — where activities were the most advanced — report losses of up to 30pc in some areas, but further damages are possible because of another flood forecast caused by the Uruguay River's elevated levels.
Farmers also report problems related to the process of drying the grains — resulting in further quality and yield losses — caused by power outages and road blockages that hamper transportation to storage facilities.
The 2023-24 rice crop in Rio Grande do Sul was initially set to yield over 8,300 kg/ha and produce almost 7.5mn t, according to Emater-RS and Conab. But the local agency now expects to revise these figures down.
Summer corn
Emater-RS expects the state to produce 5.2mn t in its 2023-24 first corn crop, 100,000t below Conab's estimate.
Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's top summer corn producer, with 20pc of the national production.
The 2023-24 first corn crop harvest advanced by 3 percentage point to 86pc of Rio Grande do Sul's planted area in the week ended 9 May.
Producers have so far prioritized advancing works and observing the damage for soybeans, which is the state's main crop.
Damages in most summer corn areas have yet to be accounted for, but farmers are reporting losses of up to 100pc in crops in the northern regions of Lajeado and Caxias do Sul. The remaining areas in Santa Maria city — where harvest is 72pc complete — are also expected to register losses close to 100pc.
Looking ahead
Brazil's national meteorological institute Inmet expects more heavy rainfalls in Rio Grande do Sul this weekend, with volumes may surpassing 100mm (4 inches) on 10-12 May.
The state's center-north and west will be the most affected areas, alongside the northern coastal areas and the south portion of neighboring Santa Catarina state.
The rains and floods in the state have left at least 113 dead, 146 people missing and more than 165,000 people displaced, according to the civil defense.
