Increasing financing flows and standardising new reactors will be essential to reaching the goal of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050, participants at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, heard.
A total of 31 countries have signed up to a pledge, first announced at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, to triple global nuclear power capacity by 2050. The pledge was one of several made at the summit, including a commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, triple renewable capacity by 2030 and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements.
Installed capacity of nuclear reactors has been roughly stable over the last 20 years, holding in a range of 350-380GW since 2004, according to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
And reaching this goal would require building 30 GW/yr of net new capacity over 2030-50. As of 2024, there are 63 reactors under construction, with a capacity of 71GW, of which roughly half are in China, according to IEA data.
Standardising new reactors will be key to achieving this goal, according to Luc Remont, head of French state-owned nuclear constructor and operator EdF. The firm's most recently built reactors have been plagued with cost overruns and delays. The 1.5GW Flamanville 3 reactor, which entered service late last year in France, took 17 years to build and cost upwards of €20bn ($21bn).
But the firm is preparing to build 6-14 new reactors in France, and hopes to learn from the construction process to reduce costs and delays. EdF has reduced lead times by 30pc on the second reactor of its two-reactor Hinkley Point C plant in the UK, Remont said.
Making nuclear power more attractive to investors will unlock some of the vast sums required to reach the tripling goal, according to Darryl White, head of Canadian bank BMO. Tripling nuclear capacity will cost $5 trillion, he said, an "enormous challenge", and while some will come from governments and banks' balance sheets, other investors will be needed. Delivery of projects needs to be more certain, while financing models such as regulated asset base or contracts for difference (CfDs) will be needed to provide certainty on returns, he said.
Policy makers are behind the curve on the growing need for base load generation, according to Swedish deputy prime minister Ebba Busch. Money globally has been funnelled into intermittent renewables, but industry is now aware of the need for more clean base load generation, whether nuclear or hydro. Sweden is hoping to pass a law this year to increase financing — including state loans and CfDs — for new nuclear, she said.
