Italian heavy plate traded at multi-year lows towards the end of 2024 after a difficult year that saw a lack of demand, especially from the distribution sector.
Prices have since then largely remained suppressed, leading market participants to suggest that mills are likely keeping their offers low to stem the flow of imports.
"They have no choice. The cake to share is too small [for Italian rerollers], so you have to squeeze out the foreign competition," a trader said.
Argus' Italy index touched a four-year low of €600/t ex-works on October 25, rising by €40/t to €640/t ex-works on February 28.
Despite the increase, buying opportunities for Italian customers have remained somewhat limited as mills have timed their price hikes to mimic import movements. The arbitrage between domestic-import offers has remained steady at €0-50/t over the past 4-5 months, a development that has likely hindered imports into Italy.
Market participants agree that buying opportunities arise when arbitrage sits above €60-70/t.
The possible launching of an anti-dumping investigation on South Korean heavy plate by European authorities also dissuaded purchasing at the end of last year. More recently, US president Donald Trump's protectionist measures, coupled with the EU's revision of the current steel safeguard measures, which is yet to conclude, have made planning procurement from abroad difficult, according to traders.
"Now we are cutting back in the past two months [import purchasing] … I have 10,000t in Italian ports, which is an okay volume for me," a trader said.
Heavy plate volumes at port might take longer than expected to deplete though.
"We do not want to sell at a loss," a trader said. "It is better to hold onto material in case prices rise. We cannot afford to have limited volumes if an increase in Italy happens," another source said.
Local rerollers have reaped the rewards of their suppressed pricing in January and February, as demand from service centres and stockists in Italy showed some signs of improvement on the year.
"At the moment we are not buying from imports. We are covered with the purchases made at the end of the year and with what we have added by purchasing in Italy," a service centre said.
Italy imported 280,000t of heavy plate last year, down by 10pc on the year, according to GTT trade data.
Looking ahead, arrivals into Italy for the first-half of 2025 are expected to drop once more, a development which would reduce pressure in the highly competitive Italian market that has the highest concentration of heavy plate suppliers in Europe.
