The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub and the US received Saudi gasoline cargoes in recent weeks, after a rare arbitrage opportunity emerged to push volumes into Europe and as the country is exporting cargoes to the US unseasonably early amid a lighter operating crude slate.
A Saudi-origin gasoline cargo arrived at the ARA hub in the week to 15 May, according to consultancy Insights Global, while Kpler tracking data showed 35,000t of 92 Ron gasoline being discharged from the Great Epsilon on 7 May.
The Great Epsilon was loaded with 41,400t of gasoline on 15 April at the port of Yanbu, which hosts Aramco's 400,000 b/d Yanbu refinery. The vessel departed on 18 April before reversing course towards the Suez Canal to discharge 6,300t of gasoline on 20 April and then resuming its journey to Antwerp via the Mediterranean, according to Kpler tracking data.
Saudi gasoline deliveries to northwest Europe are rare, Insights Global said, with the country last delivering a 20,700t cargo of gasoline to Antwerp on 19 July last year, according to Kpler. One Germany-based gasoline trader expressed surprise at the arrival, and noted an increase in Aramco trading activity in the diesel market on close (MOC).
The ARA hub is a net gasoline-exporting region and is already reckoning with excess gasoline refining capacity as Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery's output weighs on west African import demand.
Aramco was probably able to benefit from a narrowly favourable east-west gasoline arbitrage during March, with the futures spread between Singapore 92 Ron swaps and fob ARA non-oxy gasoline barges remaining workable until 21 March. The east-west futures spread has remained closed ever since.
Saudi gasoline is more commonly delivered to Mediterranean ports than to northwest Europe. Market participants consider the country's eastern ports Mediterranean-adjacent, with shipping more affordable to European Mediterranean ports. Cyprus has been the primary recipient of Saudi gasoline cargoes in the past year, according to Kpler.
Saudi Arabia may be scrambling for gasoline buyers as it faces an increase in domestic supply pressures because of a lighter crude slate. Aramco has specifically been replacing Arab Medium crude with a mixture of Arab Light and Arab Heavy as feedstock for its 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery, which could in theory increase the gasoline yield and could have made more supplies available for export.
Saudi Arabia's domestic gasoline demand continues to lag pre-pandemic 2019 levels, primarily because of higher retail prices and expansion of the electric vehicle fleet.
Saudi Aramco's 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery has notably been sending more gasoline cargoes to the US since it returned from a scheduled turnaround in April. The cargoes are probably of US summer grade F1 gasoline, traders said, adding that the "region typically sends more cargoes during the summer months". Around 122,000t of finished gasoline arrived in the US from Jizan in April, the first delivery of its kind since September, data from Vortexa showed. In comparison, the US received only 34,000t of gasoline in April 2024.
