Mexico's industrial production fell by 0.4pc in September from the prior month, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline, with construction again the main drag.
The September drop in the industrial activity indicator (IMAI), reported Tuesday by statistics agency Inegi, followed revised declines of 0.3pc in August, 1.1pc in July and 0.4pc in June. The result missed growth forecasts of zero change by Mexican bank Banorte and 0.1pc by Banamex, marking a fourth straight downside surprise for analysts.
Both banks had expected construction to turn positive in September, pointing to advances on major government infrastructure projects, including 3,000km (4,800 mi) of new passenger rail routes by 2030. The finance ministry's proposed 2026 budget allocates Ps536.8bn ($29bn) for priority infrastructure projects, up from Ps189bn in the 2025 budget.
Instead, construction fell by 2.5pc, following declines of 2.4pc in August, 1pc in July and 0.8pc in June. Within construction, civil engineering fell by 3pc after a 6.2pc drop in August, the steepest decline since October 2022. The sharpest drop came in new building construction, falling by 3.2pc in September — the largest in four straight months of contraction.
Manufacturing output edged 0.2pc higher, after a 0.1pc uptick in August, with only four of 21 categories expanding. Petroleum and coal-derived products led growth at 6.3pc, with textiles, machinery and electronics also positive. But the transportation equipment segment, including light vehicles, contracted by 1.5pc, extending declines to four months.
Banorte noted that analysis of manufacturing data has been complicated by the lack of US industrial figures for September because of the government shutdown, though trade-balance data suggest a slowdown in exports and a possible buildup in inventories that likely moderated production.
Trade uncertainty persists despite a new extension of US president Donald Trump's tariff increase on Mexican goods — to 30pc from 25pc — and the ongoing US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement review through mid-2026.
The mining sector increased by 0.7pc in September after expanding by 0.3pc in August and 2.8pc in July. Oil and gas output rose by 0.5pc following a 0.1pc decline in August, in line with recent production trends. Non-hydrocarbon mining increased by 1.4pc after a 2.5pc drop in August, helped by firmer industrial metal prices.
