Argus Crude Outlook
Overview
Stay ahead of the curve with the Argus Crude Outlook service — a monthly service that forecasts prices for key crude grades and regional benchmarks up to 36 months into the future. With expert analysis of key trends in each market, Argus Crude Outlook serves as your independent source of intelligence to aid in planning and decision-making.
Argus Consulting Services’ Crude Outlook report is published on the first Friday of every month. It aims to provide a short-term forward view of pricing developments in international crude markets.
Forecasts are provided as both a flat price and as a differential to the relevant benchmark for 21 crude grades.
The price forecast for the key marker crude North Sea Dated is generated using an independent assessment of global supply, demand and stocks. This forecast of global supply-demand is utilised in a pricing model to help generate the North Sea Dated crude price forecast. Forecasts of the secondary crude markers are created by examining breakeven pricing against the marker crudes using a marginal Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) refining configuration.
FCC yields are used in the valuation process as they are classified as the marginal refinery configuration.
When assessing crude, the intrinsic value of any given grade can differ significantly between refineries, based on their configuration. A configuration that is too complex may result in overvaluing heavy sour crude, owing to the high conversion rate, while a yield that is too simple may undervalue the crude. The marginal refinery configuration must be applied to obtain the most representative yield when valuing crude.
Key features
Crude oil forecasts
Two-year price forecast for regional crude benchmarks, grades and differentials, including WTI Midland and WTI Houston.
Refining margins
Two-year forecast of regional refining margins for northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, US Gulf coast and Singapore.
Trade and trend summaries
By region, grade and product, our analysis gives context to the rapidly changing landscape in the global oil market.
Access to analysts
If there is something you do not understand, our experts will investigate the data and find the answers you need.
Downloadable datasets
Access to all of the latest data from our client portal in an Excel format.
Customers that benefit
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Oil majors
They use our unbiased price information and analysis to inform their exploration and production activities, and investment decisions.
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Governmental agencies
They rely on our outlooks as a key part of a holistic market view.
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Refiners
They can prepare for fluctuations in the price of various crude grades to make the best decisions about refinery input.
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Trading firms
They use the price forecasts and analysis to enhance planning and decision-making.
Product specifications
Stay ahead of the curve with the Argus Crude Outlook, which is published monthly and forecasts a range of regional crude prices up to 36 months into the future.
Our people are recognised industry experts
Data alone — no matter how accurate — is not sufficient. Our strengths lie with our people — a team that combines extensive experience in strategic consulting with commodity market expertise.
Our people are experts, close to the market and working collaboratively with clients. Dedicated and committed to your needs, we pride ourselves on being accessible, responsive and connected to the markets.
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.