Gasoline exports from the Mideast Gulf to Singapore have risen sharply in October, reaching their highest level since April on the back of tight regional supplies in Asia, with additional cargoes set to sail the route this month.
The Mideast Gulf exported 146,000t of finished gasoline in October, a sharp increase from just 54,000t in September, preliminary data from US analytics firm Vortexa show. Saudi Arabia led shipments for the month, accounting for nearly 80pc of the overall exports, with state-controlled Aramco booking at least one vessel for the route. Aramco is likely diverting cargoes to Singapore because its joint venture with Petronas — Malaysia's 300,000 b/d Rapid refinery — is currently off line, a market participant said. Aramco chartered the Amwaj to ship out 42,000t of gasoline from Petrorabigh, which reached Singapore's Sebraok terminal on 13 November. Dubai's Enoc booked the Bellatrix to move 32,000t of gasoline on 25 October, while TotalEnergies' shipping arm CSSA booked the Ocean Spirit to deliver a 36,000t gasoline cargo.
Market participants are divided on the availability of gasoline cargoes in the Mideast Gulf. Some said ongoing refinery maintenances and operational issues at an India's state-controlled HPCL Mumbai refinery has tightened supplies in the region, while others maintain that supply concerns may be overstated given premiums for cargoes offered by Mideast Gulf refiners are edging down. Pakistan's state-owned PSO received offers for 92R and 95R gasoline cargoes at premiums of $4–5/bl for mid-November delivery to Karachi on a cfr basis, down from the $6-9/bl premiums offered for October-delivery cargoes. The 92R Mideast Gulf gasoline premiums assessed by Argus have retreated from the five-month high of $6.70/bl on 10 November to $6.50/bl on 18 November.
Regional demand has also softened. Import requirements from PSO have declined and Iraq also scaled back shipments because domestic output currently exceeds consumption on the back of the addition of new refineries. PSO appears to have concluded issuing tenders for the rest of the year, a Singapore-based trader said. The latest tender, issued on 22 October, was for cargoes for delivery in early November, and there has been less import activity this month. Average monthly imports to Iraq, which typically sources gasoline from Mideast Gulf countries, has declined by roughly 35pc in January-October compared with the same period in 2024. The country announced a halt in shipments of gasoline, gasoil and kerosene on 4 November, a move that could further reduce its import needs.
Tighter Asian supply
Ongoing outages at HPCL's Mumbai refinery along with planned maintenance at domestic refiner HMEL this month are expected to limit India's export capacity, because refiners like Reliance and India's state-owned MRPL may need to redirect supplies to meet domestic demand. In Kuwait, state-owned KNPC shut several units at its 490,000 b/d Mina Abdullah refinery last month and it is not yet confirmed if the units have resumed operations. Aramco's Satorp refinery is scheduled to shut for 60 days in November-December. Maintenance work is also planned at the 126,000 b/d Riyadh refinery, signalling further potential supply constraints.
Asian gasoline supplies have also been constrained by extensive maintenance at key regional gasoline-producing units and lower exports from China. South Korea's SK Energy has likely delayed the restart of its 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery RFCC unit to the end of December following a fire, while traders remain uncertain about the restart of Malaysian refiner PRefChem's 300,000 b/d Pengerang RFCC units. Singapore's light distillate inventories dropped to a five-week low of 12.7mn bls in the week ending 12 November, with monthly levels hovering near a four-month low, indicating that off line capacity and strong export demand have tightened supplies ahead of expected replenishment cargoes in December.
Indonesia's Pertamina has been reissuing tenders more frequently in an effort to secure better offers, highlighting the difficulties in procuring high-Ron supplies. Prompt demand from Indonesia could attract additional Middle Eastern supplies, with several cargoes already scheduled to arrive in November.
