Indian DAP stocks are estimated at 2.2mn-2.3mn t in mid-November, down slightly from around 2.3mn t at the beginning of the month, but are likely to be lower by the start of December.
Provisional data indicate that DAP offtake could reach as much as 1.8mn t for the whole of November, which is typically the peak month for the domestic season. This would be a rise of 20pc from offtake in November in 2024 and the highest monthly offtake since November 2022.
Indian producers have ramped up DAP production this month and output in November could reach 400,000t. This would be the highest monthly production since August 2024. Over the past five years, domestic DAP output in November has averaged 381,000t.
India is due to import 630,000t of phosphoric acid solution — a key raw material for DAP production — over October-November, according to latest Argus line-up data. The country imported just 571,000t of solution in the same period last year.
According to Argus line-up data, India is on track to import 815,000t of DAP this month. This will be far above the 562,000t average for November imports over the past five years, government data show.
The provisional sales and offtake data combined with line-up data suggest that the total drawdown — production plus imports minus sales — on Indian DAP stocks could be more than 500,000t this month.
India has managed to revive its DAP stocks from a nadir of around 1.1mn t at the beginning of 2025 by boosting imports. DAP inventories stood at around 1.6mn t at the beginning of the kharif season — starting in April.
Domestic offtake in April-October has held broadly steady on the year at 5.7mn t.
Indian producers made 2.3mn t of DAP in the period this year, down from 2.5mn t a year ago, but higher imports more than made up for the decrease.
Through signing offtake agreements with Saudi Arabia and Morocco's OCP, and accepting high prices for spot cargoes, importers drew in 4.7mn t of DAP over April-October, government data show. This is 65pc above the same period in 2024, when negative margins kept importers on the sidelines.
TSP offtake underwhelming
Domestic TSP sales have covered just 52pc of imports since April, allowing stocks to balloon.
India does not produce TSP domestically.
Indian TSP stocks at the beginning of November are estimated at around 395,000t.
Imports over April-October stood at 671,000t, Argus data show, while offtake in the same period reached only 347,000t, government data show.
India is due to import a further 232,000t of TSP in November. No TSP is lined up for import in December.
The country is yet to import TSP from any origin other than Morocco.
