Eight core Opec+ members on Sunday reconfirmed their earlier decision to keep their output steady in the first quarter of 2026, the Opec secretariat said today.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan in early November agreed to pause the unwinding of their crude production cuts for three months between January and March.
The eight unwound 2.88mn b/d worth of cuts between April and December 2025 and have another 1.24mn b/d of cuts left to unwind. Output from the eight increased by 2.25mn b/d between March and November 2025, according to Argus estimates.
The eight today reiterated after a quick meeting that their decision to pause the hikes is based on "seasonality," referring to expectations of weaker oil demand in the first quarter of 2026.
The pause will also allow the producers time to properly assess market conditions, with many forecasters projecting a large supply surplus this year — something Opec+ officials contest. If necessary, the eight have said they may extend the pause or reverse the output hikes.
The group of eight's decision to keep output steady comes after the capture of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro by the US in an overnight raid on 3 January, which included airstrikes against the country.
US President Donald Trump said the US would temporarily "run" the Venezuelan government and seek to overhaul the Opec member's oil sector. It remains unclear how this will be done in practice.
The US has sought to further squeeze Venezuela's oil exports over the past few weeks by detaining tankers as it positioned military forces around the country.
The Opec secretariat's statement did not mention Venezuela.
Venezuela produced 1mn b/d of crude in November, according to Argus estimates.
The eight countries are scheduled to meet next on 1 February.
