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European LNG prices highest since energy crisis

  • Mercados: Freight, Natural gas
  • 03/03/26

Front-month prices at the Dutch TTF hub have risen above €62/MWh about halfway through Tuesday's trading day, up by 40pc from Monday's close, and uncommitted cargoes are likely to be offered to Europe only at premiums to the TTF.

The April TTF contract traded as high as €65/MWh shortly after 11:00 GMT on Tuesday, having closed at €44.51/MWh the day before, as the US/Israel-Iran conflict increased the likelihood of extended disruptions to LNG production in the region.

Prices have more than doubled since Friday. The front-month TTF contract last closed above €65/MWh in January 2023, at the end of the energy crisis that began in 2022.

And there is a wide bid-offer spread on des prices relative to the TTF. Buyers appear unwilling to buy at a premium to the TTF, as it would then make more sense to buy gas directly from the hub. And sellers are looking to market cargoes to Asia, and are unwilling to sell at a TTF discount because of higher returns east of Suez.

Market participants have cited reports of state-owned QatarEnergy declaring force majeure at its 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal to some buyers, after it was struck by a drone and subsequently taken off line on Monday. Shipping activity around the strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Mideast Gulf remains static, with no LNG carrier transits through the strait for three days. But empty vessels have started to divert away from Hormuz, with the first being the 175,000m³ LNG Abuja II, which has declared for Mauritius.

US president Donald Trump said the military campaign against Iran could last for "four to five weeks" but acknowledged the possibility of an even more drawn-out conflict after trading closed on Monday, probably contributing to the TTF's rise this morning.

Trading firm Glencore was heard to have fixed three LNG delivered cargoes for April delivery, with one closed at $24.15/mn Btu.

LNG freight rates have also continued to rise on Tuesday, with wide bid-offer spreads reported as fixtures rise. Two-stroke vessels in the Atlantic basin were heard offered above $200,000/d, while some TFDE fixtures have been heard at $80,000-120,000/d for Atlantic basin journeys, although rates have not been confirmed.


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