WTI crude futures are up by nearly 7pc early Thursday with ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz all but paralyzed as fighting in the region enters its sixth day.
April Nymex WTI was trading near $79.65/bl at 12:30pm ET on Thursday, up by $4.99/bl from the prior day with the US and Israel continuing to exchange fire with Iran.
Prices have so far surged by more than $12/bl, or 19pc, in the four sessions since the conflict began over the weekend as producers in the region have curtailed supply. Most vessel owners are unwilling to transit the strait — a key chokepoint for oil and LNG exports from the Mideast Gulf — forcing some upstream production offline.
Prolonged supply disruptions triggered by the war could flip the global oil market into a deficit, the IEA said on 5 March.
The Paris-based energy watchdog said the global oil market has been in a significant surplus since the start of 2025 and that it expected global supply to "far exceed demand in 2026". But it warned that a prolonged disruption to supply in the Mideast Gulf "could flip the market into a deficit".
Operations at several Mideast Gulf ports have resumed following precautionary shutdowns caused by drone-related incidents, according to port authorities and operators.
Cargo operations between Iraqi ports and regional ports beyond the strait of Hormuz are continuing normally, while operations through or beyond the strait have been suspended for all types of tankers, the Iraqi port authorities said late on Wednesday.
Tanker traffic came to a near standstill through the strait of Hormuz following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February and Iran's subsequent retaliatory attacks, effectively closing the strategic waterway and halting most exports from the region.
State-owned QatarEnergy raised the official selling price for April-loading exports, though there were concerns among market participants as to how the cargoes would be shipped out of the Mideast Gulf.
China's top regulator has told oil firms to halt exports of clean products to ensure domestic supply, oil company officials told Argus.
Chinese LNG importers meanwhile have no immediate plans to purchase spot cargoes and are closely monitoring delivery schedules of their contracted LNG supply in the coming days given the ongoing conflict, market participants told Argus.
Most Chinese importers have opted for a cautious approach based on their assessment of their country's import dependence, underground gas storage inventory levels and near-term demand trends.
At least one South Korean private importer is preparing to issue a tender to secure prompt cargoes amid disrupted LNG supplies from QatarEnergy, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, sources close to the importer said.
