US Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) questioned whether US nitrogen producer CF Industries was "price gouging" or "manipulating market conditions" by raising prices in the wake of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, in a post on social media platform X on 12 March.
In his letter, Hawley posed 12 questions to CF. "American farmers should not be forced to bankroll opportunistic pricing undercover of an overseas crisis. If your company is using this conflict as a pretext to raise prices beyond what market conditions justify, Congress will not ignore it", Hawley said. "American farmers cannot absorb another price shock."
The price of urea at New Orleans has surged by roughly 30pc since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, with latest trade occurring at $630/short tonne (st) fob, further eroding the affordability of nitrogen fertilizer in the US. Urea's affordability — measured as a ratio of the price of corn to the price of urea — has reached its lowest level since November 2021. There is widespread talk of farmers opting to plant soybeans instead of corn and other nitrogen-intensive crops in parts of the US due to rising nitrogen costs.
Rising farmer costs contributed to a 46pc increase in farmer bankruptcies in 2025 from 2024, according to advocacy group Farm Bureau. Financing has been harder to come by the last year as well, according to fertilizer distributors.
But some distributors believe that Hawley misunderstands the market by taking aim at producers like CF in the current environment even considering these "very tough times for farmers".
"The letter seems performative — [He's] playing the hero of the farmer without understanding the drivers of what really makes the market run," one trader said "The US was already behind the eight-ball on spring tonnage based on imports and production outages, and now we are trading in a global market where we are having to compete with other destination markets for tons."
"Until policymakers fully recognize that fertilizer is traded within a global market, we are likely to continue seeing these kinds [of] misunderstandings," another trader chimed in.
CF did not respond to a request for comment on the letter.
The US imports almost half of its urea consumption each year. Currently, the US market sits at a discount to the global market, weighed down by robust March imports and buyer hesitancy. Buyers are waiting as long as they can to buy before spring applications take off in April.
But the US is at risk of not receiving key supplies from the Middle East if the strait of Hormuz remains unpassable. Meanwhile, production in Qatar, the source of about a fifth of US imports, is off line. Meanwhile, the absence of Qatari LNG imports has increased the cost of natural gas — nitrogen's primary feedstock — and caused India to cut urea production, leading the market to believe the country will look to buy soon, potentially tightening what is left of the global urea market even further.
Fertilizer markets have been looked at with increasing scrutiny over the past year by US government officials and lawmakers. An investigation of market concentration across agricultural inputs including seed and fertilizer is under way by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice.
Potash and phosphate markets have garnered attention as well. USDA deputy secretary Stephen Vaden said last week that North American fertilizer producers Nutrien and Mosaic are engaging in "duopoly" behavior. He also said he is hopeful that countervailing duties on phosphate imports that have increased the price of phosphates for US farmers will be lifted following a sunset review of the trade barriers by the Department of Commerce.
