Europe has replaced just over half of the jet fuel supply lost from the Middle East following the US-Iran war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz, leaving the region exposed to possible shortages in the coming months, the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report.
Current supply trends indicate that jet fuel shortages could emerge at European airports by June.
OECD Europe jet fuel inventories typically decline from 37-38 days of forward demand at the start of the year to around 30 days by mid-year, the IEA said. Since 2020, stocks have not averaged below 29 days of cover.
The IEA assumes that around 20pc of jet fuel inventories act as an operational cushion that cannot be readily drawn down without disrupting supply systems. On that basis, physical shortages could emerge if inventory cover falls to below 23 days, it said.
Airports association ACI Europe warned the European Commission last week that fuel shortages could become a reality within just three weeks. Some European countries hold as little as 20 days of jet fuel inventory, it said. Both ACI Europe and the IEA cautioned that shortages could lead to flight cancellations and demand destruction.
The Mideast Gulf typically accounts for a net 75pc of Europe's jet fuel imports. Europe has increased purchases from the US to help offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply. US jet fuel exports reached a record 442,000 b/d in the week to 3 April, according to the US EIA. Three jet fuel cargoes from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery are also currently en route to Europe, according to Kpler data.
But these additional volumes account for just over 50pc of lost Middle Eastern supply at most. "European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months," the IEA said.
If Europe replaces around 75pc of lost supply, it should be able to meet peak summer jet fuel demand, although inventories would still fall below the 23-day cover threshold by August, the agency said. Even replacing 90pc of lost volumes would leave the market tightly supplied, with stocks ending 2026 at just 26 days of cover.
The UK is the European country most exposed to the disruption, importing around 65pc of its jet fuel demand, according to the IEA.
No further jet fuel cargoes heading for Europe have passed through the strait of Hormuz, which normally accounts for around 40pc of the region's jet fuel imports. The final such cargoes discharged last week. Even if the strait were to reopen immediately, crude and product exports would take several months to stabilise, the IEA said.
Jet fuel shipments from the US to Europe totalled 366,000t in March, according to Kpler. Imports from the US are set to exceed 450,000t in April — almost double the previous monthly record — based on preliminary data.
Independent jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to a three-year low of 646,000t as of 8 April, down 28pc from a year earlier, according to consultancy Insights Global.
The IEA expects global jet fuel output to fall by around 500,000 b/d in the second quarter, as Middle Eastern supply losses combine with refinery run cuts elsewhere caused by tighter crude availability.
