India's October-December EU quota for hot-rolled coil (HRC) could be filled rapidly as major mills ramp up sales to the bloc following new import measures from 1 July, market participants said.
At least 100,000t of Indian HRC is expected to be cleared through customs once the new quotas open in October. Market participants estimate EU importers have booked 125,000-200,000t of Indian HRC over the past few weeks, most of which is for shipment in July and August. More deals are under negotiation.
India's tariff-free HRC allocation was cut by 34pc to 149,319 t/quarter from 1 July under the new import regime, of which 68pc has already been utilised, leaving about 47,000t available for use in the current quarter as of 17 July.
The shared free-trade agreement (FTA) quota pool — available on a first come, first served basis — is expected to be largely utilised by Turkey in the current quarter but could become accessible to India in the next quarter.
Indian mills have been targeting faster shipments in a bid to clear some volumes in the current quarter.
But suppliers are now looking to fill up the October-December allocations and may even slightly overshoot the quota, an Indian steel mill source said. Recent bookings have been concluded at $630-650/t cfr EU.
India could then access the FTA quota pool, although this remains uncertain as it would likely face competition from Turkey, which has also been shipping sizeable volumes to the EU and benefits from shorter lead times.
For Indian mills, the EU presents a timely opportunity to export surplus volumes during the seasonally weak monsoon period, when domestic demand typically softens, market participants said.
"Domestic prices in India are under pressure due to low demand," a trader said. "Vietnam is not attractive anymore [and] Middle East prices have also started sliding down. So the only option is to aggressively book orders into the EU."
The Argus weekly Indian domestic HRC assessment for 2.5-4mm material stood at 57,350 rupees/t ($594/t) ex-Mumbai on 17 July, having come off a multi-year high of Rs59,000/t reached in early April.
The surge in Indian shipments to the EU is "just a tactical rush and not a sustainable trend", a steel user said.
Market participants said this export window may close soon as EU buyers become wary of October-December quotas being depleted and as trading activity slows ahead of holidays in Italy.
