The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its projections for renewable diesel production and net exports while trimming domestic demand expectations.
EIA raised its forecast for renewable diesel production in 2026 to 241,000 b/d, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, up by 5,000 b/d from July's forecast. The production outlook for next year was unchanged at 294,000 b/d.
The outlook for domestic renewable diesel demand this year was trimmed by 9,000 b/d to 208,000 b/d, while the 2027 forecast was reduced by 4,000 b/d to 291,000 b/d.
EIA increased its expectation for net renewable diesel exports this year to 30,000 b/d, up by 13,000 b/d from July's projection and equal to the level recorded in 2025. Next year, renewable diesel imports and exports are expected to be balanced, compared with 5,000 b/d in net imports projected last month.
US biodiesel domestic demand is expected to average 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 115,000 b/d in 2027. The 2026 forecast was cut by 1,000 b/d from EIA's July outlook, while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. Biodiesel output is expected to reach 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 109,000 b/d in 2027, both unchanged from the previous report.
Biodiesel imports and exports in 2026 are also expected to be balanced, a decrease of 1,000 b/d in net imports from last month's projection. The agency expects 6,000 b/d of net biodiesel imports in 2027, unchanged from the previous report.
EIA's forecast for US production and consumption of "other biofuels" — including sustainable aviation fuel — were unchanged from last month's outlook at 42,000 b/d this year and 53,000 b/d next year.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for US soybean oil use for biofuels in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, holding at 8.07mn metric tonnes for the 2026–27 marketing year. US soybean crush margins have remained volatile since the start of July, peaking at $3.268/bushel (bu) on 22 July before soybean oil futures prices dove lower. Crush margins were last calculated at $2.745/bu on 10 August.
Current-year D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits were last assessed at 221.5¢/lb on 10 August, down substantially from an all-time high of 255.875¢/RIN reached on 7 July, lowering production margins for US biofuel producers. The US requires refiners to blend various types of biofuels each year or cover their obligations by purchasing RIN credits from others that do.
