Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, weighing on global oil demand despite US president Donald Trump's recent claims of the US' total control over the narrow waterway.
Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz stood at 16 vessels total on 11 August, split between 11 inbound and five outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward show. There were six total transits — including three transits into the Mideast Gulf and three transits out — that took place on the southern US-supported transit lane, including a Sinokor-controlled very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2mn bl of Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam, Windward data show.
"The USA has total control over the strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" Trump posted on social media on 12 August. "Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL' and there is nothing Iran can do about it."
Trump's claim of the US' total control over the strait of Hormuz came the same day that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described an agreement enabling the reopening of the strait of Hormuz as "still elusive" in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). It also lowered its global oil demand forecast "as the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz disrupts international supply chains and curtails product availability".
The latest remarks by Trump come as the US and Iran appear to be moving further away from the potential for diplomatic resolution to reopen the strait of Hormuz, based on recent escalations in rhetoric from both countries. Iran continues to heighten its demands for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, linking it to the end of the US' blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a region-wide ceasefire that includes Lebanon and Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump in an 11 August post on social media floated the idea that Iran "should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!"
Wright or wrong?
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 11 August that thanks to the US and its Gulf allies the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is up to almost 9mn b/d, a figure much higher than available information.
Data from vessel tracking firm Vortexa places the weekly average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz between 31 July and 7 August at 3.34mn b/d, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait as the leading exporters. It is unclear whether the vessels transited on the US-supported southern lane or the northern Iranian-controlled transit lane. Iran had previously exempted its ally Iraq from paying tolls to transit the strait in June.
The IEA confirmed in its latest OMR that "following significant gains in May and June, crude and condensate flow through Hormuz (…) collapsed in July."
Wright doubled down on his claims on 12 August stating that "many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway".
The US Central Command (Centcom) has repeatedly claimed that US-assisted transits through the strait of Hormuz have been averaging around 20 vessels a day, even on days where vessel tracking and satellite information detected only 10 vessels making it through the waterway. Centcom has declined to respond to multiple requests for additional details on the transits from Argus.
