Iran's latest tightening of transit controls in the strait of Hormuz is being viewed by freight market participants as a further escalation in the struggle for influence over the strategic waterway, raising concerns that more shipowners may choose to avoid Mideast Gulf trades.
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), established by Iran in May to oversee navigation through Hormuz, requires vessels to comply with its transit regulations and obtain permits before passing through the waterway. On 24 August, the authority advised cargo owners to review an updated list of non-compliant vessels before chartering ships for voyages to or from the Mideast Gulf.
The PGSA subsequently named 46 vessels as non-compliant and warned they could face fines, detention, seizure or confiscation during future transits through Hormuz. More significantly for freight markets, it said that any vessel involved in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, transshipment or other commercial operations with a listed ship could also be designated non-compliant, extending potential enforcement well beyond the vessels originally named.
"This appears to me more as a warning to the wider freight market," a Singapore-based shipbroker said. "The blacklist is just the opening move, but I think Iran is really targeting the shipping networks that have evolved to work around the closure of Hormuz."
The STS provision is particularly significant because it threatens one of the main mechanisms that has allowed oil to continue flowing from the region despite the disruption to normal shipping patterns through Hormuz. Some tankers have continued loading crude within the Mideast Gulf before shuttling cargoes out of the area, where they are discharged onto "daughter vessels" for onward transportation.
"The sting is in the STS condition," another broker said. "The blacklist doesn't stop with the vessels on it. Owners now have to think about who they will trade with, because a routine STS operation could ultimately land them on the same list."
The latest PGSA measure further complicates an operating environment already under considerable strain. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, more owners have reduced their exposure to voyages within the region because of security concerns, elevated insurance costs and uncertainty over future restrictions.
The PGSA's latest move appears designed to pressure the maritime supply chain rather than simply enforce transit regulations, a freight analyst said.
"The objective is, quite clearly, deterrence," the analyst said. "The message is that participation comes with consequences. That inevitably narrows the number of owners willing to participate in regional voyages."
The frequency of Iranian attacks on ships linked to Abu Dhabi's stated-owned Adnoc illustrates the pressure already facing commercial vessels operating in and around Hormuz. Around 19 Adnoc-linked vessels have been attacked since the start of the US-Iran war, reinforcing the view among market participants that Iran is prepared to continue using shipping as leverage in its bid to cement its authority over the strait.
Brokers expect the latest rules to reinforce owners' caution toward voyages to and from the Mideast Gulf given that backdrop.
"The pool of willing tonnage was already shrinking," another shipbroker said. "This could thin it further. Right now, it appears that some owners would rather pursue employment for their vessels elsewhere than take on an expanding set of risks that are becoming harder to evaluate."
Perhaps more troubling for many market participants is the longer-term message sent by the PGSA's latest move.
"I think the real concern isn't next week or next month," another broker said. "Iran has shown it can inject uncertainty into freight markets and is likely to continue using shipping as leverage and bargaining chips."
For owners and charterers, the result is a growing acceptance that uncertainty around Hormuz is becoming increasingly embedded in day-to-day business. "Owners can adapt to higher costs, longer voyages and elevated security risks, but abrupt rule changes and shifting compliance requirements are far harder to manage," a chartering manager said. "That's just part of doing business there."
