Works at production sites and interconnection points have shifted European flows this month (see table).
The most disruptive maintenance so far has been seasonal work on the Norwegian continental shelf. This has weighed on Norwegian exports to Europe, including the UK, with deliveries falling to 3.23 TWh/d this month, down by 12pc from 3.63 TWh/d over the whole of August.
The reduction has mostly affected the UK, currently the lowest-priced market that Norway supplies. Norwegian nominated flows to the UK fell to 329 GWh/d on 1-8 September from 701 GWh/d in August.
Average unavailable capacity at Norwegian fields is scheduled at 530 GWh/d over the remainder of the month, slightly down from 540 GWh/d on 1-9 September. That said, works will be strong on particular days, and this is likely to affect markets other than the NBP.
The UK has offset the large drop from Norway by halting UK exports to Belgium through the Interconnector, which is scheduled to remain off line until 21 September.
UK net exports to Belgium on the Interconnector were strong at 379 GWh/d in August. But Belgium has compensated for the loss of such volumes this month by increasing inflows from France and boosting LNG sendout. This allowed the country to continue brisk exports to Germany and even switch to net exports to the Netherlands.
Regasification from Belgium's Zeebrugge LNG terminal has risen significantly this month, with sendout increasing to 270 GWh/d on 1-8 September from 56 GWh/d in August. The terminal received a surge of cargoes in late August after weeks of minimal unloadings earlier in the summer, when strong Asian buying limited deliveries to northwest Europe.
Tight Belgian supply has also prompted a drastic reversal in flows at the French-Belgian Virtualys point. French exports to Belgium have averaged 204 GWh/d this month, switching from net imports of 104 GWh/d in August. The Peg-ZTP day-ahead basis also switched from €0.16/MWh throughout August to minus €0.29/MWh on 1-8 September.
Maintenance at the Oltingue interconnection point, where French supply enters Switzerland for onward transit to Italy, has halted all flows at the point until 11 September, leaving more French supply available for export to Belgium this month. The works started on 31 August.
Current price differentials suggest that France will prioritise exports to Italy above exports to Belgium once the Oltingue work ends. The Peg-PSV balance-of-September basis market was minus €3.23/MWh at the latest close while the equivalent Peg-ZTP basis was much narrower at just minus €0.255/MWh.
If the differentials hold and France slows exports at Virtualys, Belgium may have to reduce exports to Germany until the Interconnector returns on 23 September. That said, faster sendout from Zeebrugge could also cushion any decline in French inflows.
Germany's supply balance will face further strain on 23-24 September when works hit receiving points for Norwegian gas. Capacity at the 485 GWh/d Zeebrugge entry point will be cut to 253 GWh on 23 September — coinciding with peak capacity cuts at Norwegian fields — in turn limiting Belgium's ability to maintain brisk exports to Germany.
Meanwhile, works reducing Dornum's technical capacity to 551 GWh/d from 781 GWh/d will directly restrict Norwegian flows to Germany and the Netherlands.
| Works at European interconnectors and import points | GWh/d | ||
| Dates | Unavailable | Technical capacity | |
| Interconnector | 1-21 Sep | 0 | 652 |
| Passo Gries | 27 Aug-14 Sep | 437 | 698 |
| Oltingue | 31 Aug-11 Sep | 0 | 260 |
| Medgaz | 17-22 Sep | Unspecified | 337 |
| BBL | 1-15 Oct | 0 | 185 (towards NL) |
| Dornum | 23-Sep | 551 | 781 |
| Zeebrugge | 24-Sep | 253 | 485 |
