President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that global oil prices are unlikely to stabilize until after the 3 November midterm congressional elections.
"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward", Trump told reporters. "It's going to take a little bit longer than the midterms."
Trump, since he started the war against Iran more than six months ago, has routinely predicted that the conflict would wrap up quickly because of the supposed destruction of Iran's military potential.
But on Wednesday, Trump laid out a new narrative that dispenses with his earlier claims of an imminent Iranian collapse, arguing that Tehran's strategy is taking the US electoral calendar into play.
Iran is "desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in (Congress), and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon," Trump said. But, he added: "The war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer."
Trump was speaking to reporters before leaving Washington to attend an unusual, mid-term Republican party convention in Dallas, Texas, where party members hope to tout efforts to bring down prices for consumers.
When the US joined Israel in attacking Iran on 28 February, Republicans envisioned a geopolitical victory abroad and cheaper fuel prices at home, a combination that would put wind at their backs to hold unified control of Congress. But, less than two months before the elections, polls indicate that Democrats are likely to wrest control of at least one chamber, if not both. The turnaround in political fortunes, in part, reflects voter concerns over rising inflation, not least because of higher fuel prices stemming from the Mideast Gulf supply disruption.
US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.16/USG in the week ended on 7 September, up by around 40pc from late February.
"We'll get them down, for gasoline, below $2 a gallon," Trump said on Wednesday.
Trump, who ran for re-election in 2024 on a platform promising to cut US energy prices by half, downplayed voters' concerns about rising fuel prices. "I think it's very easy to explain to Americans," he said. "All you have to do is say, 'Will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon?' And the answer is 'no.'"
The US and Iran are locked in a struggle for control of the strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for Mideast Gulf oil and LNG exports where commercial traffic remains well below pre-war levels.
The US-Iran military confrontation has escalated in recent days, with US forces destroying eight Iranian tankers in the Mideast Gulf and the Gulf of Oman since 5 September. The Pentagon cited attempted Iranian missile attacks on US warships as a justification for destroying Iranian tankers.
"You're going to see a lot more" attacks on Iranian tankers, Trump said.
Iran has responded with attacks on the US military base in Jordan and claimed that it has targeted multiple vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz. Two tankers were struck by unknown projectiles in separate attacks within the Mideast Gulf, maritime security organization UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on Wednesday.
Iran's ability to target US warships and commercial vessels passing through Hormuz counters recent US claims of having decisively eliminated Tehran's military threat and of enabling an increase in oil exports through the critical waterway.
Crude futures have settled higher in each of the past six sessions dating back to 31 August, with October Nymex WTI trading near $96/bl on Wednesday morning.
