Central Europe's bitumen surplus could widen in the coming weeks as weak demand and a potential increase in Polish supply outweigh planned export cuts from the Czech Republic.
The central European bitumen market has been slow to recover from its seasonal summer slowdown, leaving the region oversupplied.
Higher output from Orlen's 373,000 b/d Plock refinery in Poland and Orlen subsidiary Unipetrol's 108,000 b/d Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic over the past two months, supported by more consistent supplies of Middle Eastern sour crude, has added to inventories and weighed on domestic and export prices, according to market participants.
Argus assessed Polish domestic truck prices at €530/t ex-works on 4 September, their lowest level since 13 March. Czech domestic truck prices were assessed at €545/t ex-works last week, their lowest level since 6 March.
Product availability could increase further in the coming weeks following the start of planned maintenance at the Plock refinery on 2 September. Work on the refinery's crude distillation unit and hydrocracker is expected to increase the volume of vacuum residue available for bitumen production, according to a source familiar with the refinery's operations.
A domestic Polish bitumen buyer said higher output could exacerbate an already oversupplied market and increase exports, particularly to Romania, Germany and Ukraine.
Poland exported 83,000t in the first half of this year, compared with 100,000t in the same period of 2025 and 90,000t in January-June 2024, according to market participants.
Any increase in Polish exports would help offset planned export curbs from Litvinov. The Czech refinery is reducing exports to ensure adequate supply to the domestic market as demand gradually recovers from the summer slowdown.
