A total of at least five LNG carriers operated by state-owned QatarEnergy (QE) have sailed through the strait of Hormuz without displaying their location over the past week, raising hopes of a potential restart in Qatari LNG exports.
The 217,000m³ Al Shamal issued an Automatic Identification Signal (AIS) signal in the Indian Ocean late on 24 September, ship-tracking data from Kpler show. The vessel's previous signal was broadcast on 19 September from nearby Qatar's now-64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal. This brings the total number of visible QE transits so far this month to 13.
The increased number of dark Hormuz transits in the past week was likely one of the factors that raised hopes of Qatari exports restarting, weighing on LNG spot prices, traders said. But they were quick to point out that this may not result in sustained, large-scale outflows of Qatari LNG.
The front half-month of the ANEA, the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia was last assessed at $26.20/mn Btu on 25 September, $1.65/mn Btu lower than a week earlier. The front half-month ANEA last hit a peak of $29.56/mn Btu on 15 September, the highest front half-month price since 22 October 2022, before mostly tracking softer European gas hub prices lower.
Europe's benchmark gas hub, the Dutch TTF, has also fallen considerably, opening at €75.025/MWh on 25 September, as compared to above €80/MWh just over a week ago, on 14-15 September.
Most of the laden vessels that exited the strait of Hormuz has found their way to India, with others destined for Pakistan. Since India began receiving Qatari LNG deliveries, importers in the country have started seeking cargoes further out.
Over 25-27 August, some Indian importers were issuing tenders for very prompt deliveries, for delivery as early as 1 September. This just leaves about 11 days as nomination period, compared to the standard nomination period of 20-25 days.
But in the past week, a slew of tenders was mostly seeking for deliveries from early October to as late as 21 November, with nomination periods of about 13-58 days from the tender closing date. This implied that their most prompt requirements were met by Qatari deliveries, allowing them to instead plan for their downstream demand further out.
Indian importers have issued about 20 tenders so far in September, almost matching the 20 and 21 tenders issued in July and August, respectively, according to Argus data.
Most recently, on 23 September, aside from the Al Shamal, three other LNG carriers sailed through the strait of Hormuz without displaying their location.
