Mitigation, adaptation and climate finance may be areas the two presidents push for agreement on, writes Georgia Gratton
Turkey will host the UN Cop 31 climate summit in November, but Australia will hold the role of presidency for the negotiations. This dual presidency setup is a first for Cop conferences and it is not yet clear how it will affect the outcome.
The Cop host rotates among five UN regional groups and is selected by the other countries in that group. Turkey and Australia were both determined to host this year's talks. The countries reached a compromise that will see Turkey host Cop 31 in Antalya, with Australian energy minister Chris Bowen overseeing the formal negotiations between nearly 200 country delegations. The Turkish presidency has outlined its key concerns, including a 35x35 goal — to increase the share of electricity in final worldwide energy demand to 35pc by 2035. Part of the Australian presidency's priority list will be ensuring that Pacific islands — low-lying and intensely vulnerable to climate change — have a voice at the summit.
Bowen and Murat Kurum — Turkey's environment minister and Cop 31 president — will "take forward a presidency-led decision… which captures the global moment and calls for action", Bowen said earlier this month. This could be a reference to a cover decision, which offers an opportunity for countries to set out wider, overarching goals, not always connected to specific agenda items, and which often work to a longer timeframe a decade or more ahead.
"We don't want to negotiate a lengthy political statement, but a focused and concrete response to the challenges and opportunities of our time," Bowen said. The decision "could recognise" the inevitable overshoot of the Paris Agreement goal to limit the global rise in temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, Bowen said. He also floated the inclusion of "high-impact solutions for mitigation and adaptation" — cutting emissions and adjusting to climate change — and reaffirming existing climate finance pledges. These are areas in which it has been difficult to form consensus at recent Cops.
Background politics
As always, geopolitics will loom over this year's Cop, and wider Cop goals must compete with countries' individual priorities. Many will push for faster decarbonisation for energy security, cost and emissions reduction reasons. But other countries will use the same reasons to warn against a hastened transition. Turkey and Australia are dependent on fossil fuels, although both were represented at the International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in April.
Turkey's energy supply was mostly met by fossil fuels in 2025, at 81.6pc, data from energy watchdog the IEA show. But solar, wind, hydropower and other renewables made up 46.5pc of the country's domestic energy production last year, according to the IEA, lending some weight to the presidency's 35x35 electrification goal. Australia is the world's second-largest coal exporter but the country's highest court this month upheld a ruling that blocked a coal mine expansion and could be leveraged to restrict further coal mine approvals.
Australia typically aligns with other developed countries at Cop summits, but Turkey is rare in that it is not part of a negotiating bloc. This "could work in its favour", climate think-tank E3G senior researcher Oyku Senlen tells Argus. "By virtue of its geopolitical position, Turkey is accustomed to flexible diplomacy. It has experience in gauging the expectations of different actors and finding common ground," Senlen says. Turkey will oversee the world leaders' summit, while Australia is likely to chair plenaries charting the progress of negotiations. The countries have supported one another's agendas and Bowen affirmed at a pre-Cop event that the countries are united. "We are working hand in glove, for the parties together, for a very strong outcome," he said.
