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Energy markets unlikely to normalise in 2027: IEA Birol

  • Mercados: Crude oil, Electricity, Oil products
  • 20/10/26

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said today that he does not see "any credible pathway" for a normalisation of energy markets next year and that the crisis in the Middle East could escalate further.

"I'm very worried that there will be some overlapping crisis in [the] Middle East… there may be some other crisis and it may further escalate the situation which will have serious implications for the energy markets", he told the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit in London.

IEA member countries agreed in March to release 400mn bl of oil from emergency reserves. This was a "cushion", Birol said today. The IEA said earlier this month that around 330mn bl had been released so far.

"If there is a need, I am sure our governments will not hesitate to look at the option of releasing further stocks", he said.

The IEA said earlier this month that 20mn bl of diesel would be included in a G7-led oil stocks release.

"I think we are trying to front-load those diesel deliveries", Birol said today, although he added that the timing is dependent on governments. He expressed concern about winter, when diesel demand typically rises — mostly because of heating fuel needs in the northern hemisphere.

Birol noted that, while many expected crude oil prices to have risen further, "we don't use crude oil, we use products". It is "myopic" to assess the gravity of the situation on crude prices alone, when oil products prices have increased faster, he added.

Energy security and climate change objectives are "closely aligned" at present, but "climate change is sliding down the international policy agenda", despite an increase in extreme weather events, Birol said today. He expects to see interest in climate change issues "rebound" next year, he added — partly owed to renewables which are cheap and quick to build out.

Birol said he expected broad agreement from countries on electrification at the UN Cop 31 climate summit next month. The Turkish Cop 31 presidency has set a goal dubbed 35x35, to lift electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035.


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