Crop-based feedstocks will remain necessary to meet growing renewable fuel demand in the EU in the coming years, industry participants said at the Argus Biofuels Conference this week. This is because supplies of advanced feedstocks are unlikely to keep pace with expanding biofuel mandates.
Global supply of waste-based oil could fall short of demand for advanced feedstocks by as much as 8mn t by 2030, according to Argus Analytics estimations, with tightness expected to emerge from 2027 and intensify from 2028.
Waste based and advanced feedstocks remain central to European decarbonisation policies — with Annex IX Part A feedstocks' use uncapped under the latest EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) — but potential for supply growth is limited, and even increased investment in waste oil collection and pretreatment technologies is unlikely to close the gap, delegates heard. At the same time, renewable fuels of non-biological origin are commercially challenging and far from being deployed at scale, while greater adoption of electric vehicles could reduce pressure on biofuel feedstock demand, but progress remains constrained by infrastructure development and regulatory challenges.
Meanwhile, first-generation crop-based feedstocks are among the scalable and cost-competitive options for meeting renewables targets in the coming years, while supplies of waste and advanced Annex IX Part A feedstocks remain constrained, panellists said. Current EU legislative framework diverges between member states, with RED III capping a country's crop-based fuel use at the lower threshold of one percentage point above its 2020 share or a 7pc ceiling. Looking ahead, crop-based fuels could gain some ground post-2030, as the European Commission's RED IV leaked impact assessment proposes a shift to a maximum 7pc cap across the board — a move that could increase food and feed crop-based biofuel quantities by 30pc, according to commission estimates.
Increased uptake of higher greenhouse gas-saving (GHG) crops could also help to ease the feedstock gap out to 2030, particularly for member states that mandate biofuel use on a GHG reduction, rather than energetic basis. Intermediate crops also have significant production potential — cover crops planted on just 5pc of European arable land could theoretically produce nearly enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet EU aviation biofuel targets by 2030, BP's vice-president of regulatory affairs bioenergy Eirik Pitkethly told delegates this week.
