Iron ore loadings from Guinea's port of Morebaya have surged to a fresh high in October, driven by the continued ramp-up of production at the country's Simandou project.
Guinean iron ore loadings for 1-27 October have reached 4.53mn t, already up by 20pc from 3.78mn t in September, while loadings scheduled for the last four days of October could take the monthly total to 6.12mn t, an increase of 62pc from September, Kpler data show.
Guinean iron ore loadings have risen steadily since exports began in December, apart from a temporary pause in growth in June and July caused by the onset of the west African rainy season and logistical difficulties.
Argus forecasts that Guinean iron ore exports will reach 32mn t by the end of 2026, which would put exports for November-December in the region of 5mn-6mn t/month. Guinea has exported just under 20mn t of iron ore so far in 2026, according to Kpler.
Capesize freight rates for the Guinea to north China route have rebounded in the second half of October, rising to $35.25/t on 27 October from a 3.5-month low of $29.80/t on 15 October. But Guinea to north China Capesize rates remain well below the September average of $42.92/t, the highest since Argus began assessing the route in March.
At the same time, seaborne iron prices in China — so far the sole destination for Guinean exports — have remained low because of elevated portside inventories and muted demand from steelmakers. The 65pc iron ore price at Qingdao has averaged $105.52/t so far in October, down from $121.43/t in the first half of 2026 and the lowest since June 2025.
