Argus European Natural Gas Outlook
Overview
The Argus European Natural Gas Outlook is a monthly publication providing forward-looking fundamentals analysis and an 18-month Dutch TTF price forecast for European gas markets. It covers pipeline and LNG supply by region, residential, commercial, industrial and power demand, and gas storage dynamics, giving market participants a structured view of European supply, demand and price.
At a glance
- Monthly TTF price forecast with 18-month granularity.
- Disaggregated European supply and demand analysis.
- Country-level LNG import and export coverage.
- Gas storage net injection and withdrawal forecast.
- Month-on-month explanations for every forecast adjustment.
- Delivered via PDF, Excel data files and the Argus Direct® platform.
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Key features
Aggregated European balance
Argus delivers a consolidated European gas balance before exploring major supply and demand sources, providing a clear starting point for market analysis and planning.
Demand by sector
Detailed quantitative and qualitative coverage of Europe's residential, commercial, industrial and power sector gas consumption, alongside European exports and gas storage injection data.
Supply by region and type
Disaggregated views on pipeline and LNG supply, storage withdrawals and additional LNG detail by region, reflecting Europe's exposure to an evolving global gas supply chain.
TTF price forecast
Argus delivers a monthly Dutch TTF price forecast covering 18 months, accounting for supply and demand expectations and competing fuel dynamics across coal, power and crude oil markets.
Global LNG balance
Country-level analysis of LNG importing and exporting regions globally, enabling clients to understand how shifts in global LNG supply and demand affect European gas pricing.
Month-on-month changes
Argus explains every forecast adjustment in each monthly publication, enabling clients to track key market developments and compare current conditions against prior expectations.
How Argus assesses the European natural gas market
- Market-reflective methodology
Argus constructs methodologies that reflect how the market trades, producing assessments that are reliable, representative and free from distortion.
- Broad market participant input
Assessments draw on data from a wide cross-section of participants, including producers, consumers and intermediaries, proactively engaged by Argus reporters.
- Transaction verification
Reporters verify transactions, bids, offers and counterparty details before incorporating data into the assessment process.
- Minimum specification standards
Deals must meet minimum volume, delivery, timing and specification requirements to be included in the assessment process.
- Expert judgment application
Where data is limited, reporters apply structured judgment based on bids, offers and fundamental market information to assess value.
Who uses this service
Energy market analysts
- Build and challenge fundamentals-driven models using integrated European gas supply, demand and price data.
- Support trading and procurement decisions with an independent forward view on TTF prices.
- Compare current market conditions against forecast expectations to identify emerging shifts.
Energy market traders
- Develop and challenge forward natural gas, LNG and related commodity market positions.
- Access an 18-month TTF price forecast to inform trading strategies and hedging decisions.
- Track month-on-month forecast adjustments to respond to evolving market conditions.
Energy procurement teams
- Plan and manage gas portfolios using forward supply, demand and price analysis.
- Benchmark procurement decisions against an independent TTF price forecast.
- Monitor storage dynamics and supply shifts to optimise purchasing timing and exposure.
Risk managers and financial services
- Build an independent market view to reduce price, credit and volume exposure.
- Use European gas fundamentals to inform hedging strategies and risk models.
- Track storage and LNG supply dynamics to support scenario planning and portfolio decisions.