Overview

Argus’ monthly Outlook provides detailed, forward-looking fundamentals analysis and a price forecast for the region, with a view on the global LNG supply-demand balance.

On supply, the analysis includes North Sea and other regional production alongside pipeline imports from north Africa, the Caspian region and Russia. For LNG, Argus delivers country-level analysis for importing and exporting regions globally.

On demand, the outlook considers Europe’s residential, commercial, and industrial and power sector gas burn. The continent’s gas storage flexibility is assessed, expressed as net injections or withdrawals.

Argus includes a monthly forecast of the key Dutch TTF price to accompany the fundamentals analysis. The forecast accounts for supply and demand expectations, drawing on Argus’ unique viewpoint on competing and related fuels from coal and power to crude oil.

Accounting for change: decades of gas market coverage

The natural gas market is undergoing rapid change. Argus explains every forecast adjustment in each monthly publication. Our forward-looking coverage builds on decades of European Natural Gas and Global LNG market reporting. This enables our clients to compare current market prices and conditions to forecast prices and expectations.

Our long track record of market reporting means Argus is often the first to know of underlying market changes. This outlook benefits from timely and accurate information from across the Argus business. Argus provides a one-stop-shop for market participants to track key developments in the European natural gas market and plan their business accordingly.

Key features

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Format

We deliver a monthly PDF accompanied by quantitative data in electronic form. All the data, analysis and market intelligence can be accessed through Argus’ online platform, Argus Direct and by email.

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Aggregated European balances

Argus delivers an aggregated European balance, before exploring major sources of supply and demand in discrete sections.

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Demand by segment

Argus delivers detailed quantitative and qualitative information about Europe’s key sources of consumption by type, including residential, commercial, and industrial and power sector gas demand, and European exports alongside gas storage injections.

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Supply by region and type

Argus delivers disaggregated, quantitative and qualitative views on pipeline and LNG supply, alongside storage withdrawals. We provide additional detail for LNG supply and demand by region, given Europe’s exposure to an evolving global supply chain.

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TTF prices

Argus delivers an 18-month Dutch TTF price forecast with monthly granularity. The forecast represents Argus’ average prompt delivered price expectations for a given month. The Dutch TTF is Europe’s most traded gas market, and an important benchmark. Argus’ forecast is separate to Argus daily price assessments for the same market, published in the European Natural Gas report.

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Month-on-month changes

Argus explains output changes by exploring key gas market events affecting these outcomes.

Customers that benefit

The Argus European Natural Gas Outlook benefits European and international clients that want to develop or challenge a forward view on supply, demand and price for this globally important market:
  • Energy market analysts

    Gas, power and other energy market analysts looking to build, contribute to or challenge fundamentals-driven models and scenarios to support trading and/or procurement activities related to the European market.

  • Energy market traders

    Gas, power and other energy market traders, including utilities and trading houses, developing and challenging forward natural gas, LNG and other related commodity market views and positions.

  • Energy market risk managers

    Risk management teams seeking to build an alternative view to reduce price, credit and volume exposure.
  • Energy procurement

    Energy procurement teams, including industrials and manufacturers, planning and managing gas and other related commodity portfolios.

  • Financial services

    Fund managers and investment teams focused on energy and related commodity classes that wish to develop and critique in-house assumptions on market evolution to support hedging, risk management and planning.

  • Government agencies, regulators

    Energy specialists seeking to understand how the European gas and related LNG markets may evolve in terms of supply, demand and price to aid policy development and market tracking.