Argus International Ammonia Forward Curves
Overview
Argus International Ammonia Forward Curves is a daily forward curve service providing modelled current market values for eight international ammonia markets. Prices are published in US dollars per tonne for 24 forward months, covering key locations across the Middle East, Asia, Northwest Europe and the Americas. The service uses statistical modelling with proxy market inputs to deliver independent, zero-arbitrage forward prices for risk management and commercial decision-making.
At a glance
- Eight ammonia markets across four global regions.
- 24 forward months published in $/t, updated daily.
- Statistical modelling using proxy market inputs.
- Zero-arbitrage pricing across all strip periods.
- Supports mark-to-market, VaR and deal valuation.
- Enables independent forward curve validation.
Speak to a specialist
Key features
Daily curve publication
Argus publishes International Ammonia Forward Curves on weekdays, providing a rolling 24-month view of monthly forward prices in US dollars per tonne across all eight ammonia markets.
Global ammonia coverage
Forward curves cover Middle East fob, India cfr, East Asia (exc Taiwan) cfr, Northwest Europe (duty paid/free) cfr, US Gulf cfr, US Gulf fob, Tampa cfr and Caribbean fob.
Statistical proxy modelling
Statistical procedures identify relevant ammonia-market proxies — including fertilisers, feedstocks, agricultural products and currencies — with optimal weights calculated from historic data.
Zero-arbitrage consistency
Strip prices always equal the average of their component periods, maintaining zero-arbitrage consistency across monthly, quarterly and calendar strip contracts.
Rigorous data validation
Curves use current and historical inputs, all subject to rigorous quality checks. Abnormally large day-on-day price changes are investigated and confirmed or revised by Argus analysts.
Flexible delivery options
Access data via data feed, Argus Direct® client portal, third-party channel partners, API, Excel add-in or email, integrating into existing analytical and risk management workflows.
Who uses this service
Risk managers
- Validate forward curves against counterparty data using an independent, unbiased source.
- Apply forward prices for mark-to-market accounting and daily profit and loss assessments.
- Calculate value-at-risk, potential future exposure and deal valuation.
Traders and market analysts
- Reference prior-day curves as a daily starting point when entering ammonia markets.
- Identify locational and temporal spread relationships across global ammonia markets.
- Use historical curve data to inform trading strategies and commercial positioning.
Ammonia marketers
- Validate prices encountered across multiple ammonia markets using independent data.
- Support contract negotiations with transparent, methodology-based forward price references.
- Monitor forward market dynamics across key trading hubs to inform commercial decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Argus forward curves
We offer a full suite of forward curves across key energy and commodity markets. Support your investment and trading decisions with our powerful, independent market valuation tool.
Find out more