ARGUS Possibility Curves
Pairing unique data and market knowledge, with data science expertise
What is the probability that the crude oil price will be between $50 and $60/bl? Argus Possibility Curves estimate the possibility of what range oil prices will trade in and the balance of risk (asymmetry in the upside or downside risk).
Argus Possibility Curves have been developed using the most complete data set of actual deals and historical prices in US crude markets, as well as financial and macroeconomic drivers. The use of Argus crude prices in over 90% of physically-indexed trade and virtually all swaps contracts in the US Gulf coast and at Cushing keeps us closely aligned with the market, giving us qualitative insight to pair with our data science expertise.
How does it work?
Argus Possibility Curves are developed with the leading feature engineering, feature selection and model diagnostics processes, building on decades of market expertise and machine learning algorithms.