Impact of the Iran War on global commodity markets - part 2

A cross-commodity analysis of the Middle East conflict, focusing on its impact on global commodity markets. Eight weeks into the conflict, markets remain highly volatile, with continued insecurity over supply chains and trade flows. Key points include:

• Conflict Impact Overview: The conflict has caused major damage to energy infrastructure and disruption to shipping routes, especially through the strait of Hormuz, vital for global commodity exports.
• Production Capacity Loss: Multiple commodities — including crude oil, LNG, LPG, fertilizers and chemicals — have faced notable capacity loss, exceeding 15pc globally for some sectors, resulting from both direct damage and precautionary shutdowns.
• Supply and Export Disruption: Severe export bottlenecks have disrupted flows, leading to shortages and sharp price volatility, particularly for commodities such as LPG, sulphur and ammonia, and a full recovery is expected to take time even after hostilities end.
• Analytical Framework - The report addresses:
  
  
  • How much capacity has been taken off line
  • Total supply lost
  • Supply recovery trajectory to pre-war levels
  • Broader market implications
• Visual Data and Scenarios: Charts illustrate disruption severity for 12 commodities and model three potential recovery scenarios based on the conflict’s duration.
• Forward-Looking Intelligence: Includes near-term forecasts and long-term analytics for prices, supply and demand to support strategic planning.