Durum output is anticipated to see the largest year-on-year recovery in Canada, under Statistics Canada (StatCan) estimates, while spring wheat production is expected to rise at a slower rate than earlier projections.
Canada's overall wheat output, comprised of spring, durum and winter, is expected to total 34.6mn t in 2022-23 (August-July), up from 22.3mn t a year earlier, StatCan said.
Durum wheat is expected to see the sharpest increase on the year to reach 6.47mn t, against 3.04mn t in 2021-22. This was higher than an average estimate of 5.9mn t by Argus' agricultural advisory arm Agritel and 6.3mn t expected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) earlier this month.
Meanwhile, spring wheat production is expected to total 25.57mn t, up from 16.25mn t a year earlier. This would be lower than the 26mn t projected following the Argus Canadian crop tour earlier in August.
StatCan projected spring wheat yields to average 52.7 bushels per acre (3.54 t/hectares (ha)) across the Canadian Prairies, compared with 3.58 t/ha according to the findings of the Argus crop tour.
With winter wheat output pegged at 2.53mn t, Canada's non-durum wheat production would reach a combined 28.1mn t, compared with 28.24mn t most recently estimated by AAFC.
In line with expectations of higher yields, wheat protein levels are anticipated to fall from near-record levels a year earlier and slightly below long-term averages.
The higher yields could allow for prices to decrease and demand for Canadian wheat to recover in 2022-23, but this could be limited depending on the severity of the protein shortage during the ongoing harvest.
Canola and barley
Canada's canola production is expected to reach 19.5mn t in the 2022-23 marketing year, which would be the highest level since 2019-2020. This would also be above the previous four-year average of 18.4mn t.
And barley production is projected at 9.3mn t for 2022-23, up from the previous year's 7mn t, but only marginally above the previous four-year average of 9.1mn t.
