Global geopolitics sets the scene for a polarised UN Cop 27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November — with energy security concerns likely to overshadow efforts to combat climate change.
Intensifying climate change disasters will amplify African countries' perennial calls for western finance to support their adaptation efforts and compensate for climate-related loss and damage. At the same time, the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war has already prompted western countries to backslide on some of their pledges to phase out fossil fuels — and made the issue of natural gas as a transition fuel in Africa a flashpoint.
African countries argue that they have a right to exploit their fossil fuel resources — and specifically gas — to lift their populations from poverty, given that they contributed the least to the climate crisis and yet are disproportionately affected by it, with high rates of food and water insecurity and the fewest resources to adapt. Africa is responsible for no more than 3pc of global emissions, whereas China accounts for 30pc, while the US share is 14pc. Around 600mn people, or nearly half of Africa's 1.4bn population, lack access to electricity, while 900mn do not have any clean cooking fuels.
The IEA this year endorsed the view that Africa's industrialisation will partly rely on expanding natural gas use. Its Africa Energy Outlook 2022 explores how all of Africa's energy-related development goals can be achieved by 2030. Realising Africa's energy and climate goals will require doubling energy investment to more than $190bn/yr over 2026-30, with two-thirds going to clean energy, the IEA says.
Against this backdrop, the African Union (AU) in June proposed a common position in favour of gas being endorsed as a transition fuel at Cop 27. This would assert Africa's right to pursue a "differentiated path" towards universal energy access, energy security and strengthened climate resilience, it said. In the paper on energy access and a just transition, it stipulated that Africa would "continue to deploy all forms of its abundant energy resources including renewable and non-renewable energy" to meet demand. "Natural gas, green and low-carbon hydrogen and nuclear energy will play a crucial role in expanding energy access, while enhancing the uptake of renewables in the long term," it said.
Favourable outcomes
AU commissioner for infrastructure and energy Amani Abou-Zeid said the proposal was "a timely measure to push for favourable outcomes and tangible investments in energy and infrastructure" at Cop 27. But the African Group of Negotiators rejected this pro-gas position as too controversial and a likely distraction from other pressing priorities such as securing climate finance.
At the same time, the EU faces a credibility crisis over its perceived backsliding on climate pledges as it scrambles for natural gas to replace Russian imports and ramps up coal-burning power generation to plug its energy shortfall. While Germany is part of the Just Energy Transition Partnership formed at Cop 26 to support South Africa in phasing out coal, the country now imports eight times more coal from South Africa than a year ago.
"We need to be clearer about the fact that while we have a short-term problem, we have not lost sight of the long-term problems," the German development ministry's climate, energy and environment director Heike Henn said. Germany will continue to push for coal phase-out agreements with India, Indonesia and Vietnam, which could be a blueprint for similar agreements in Africa, she said.
Meanwhile, European countries have been pursuing gas projects in Africa to cut their reliance on Russian gas. Germany has approached Senegal, while French utility Engie has been negotiating an increase in natural gas imports from Algeria. Norwegian research firm Rystad has tipped Africa as the most suitable place for the EU to boost its gas supplies. BP has big gas projects in Senegal and Mauritania, while Total, Shell and Equinor also have significant as-yet undeveloped LNG portfolios in Africa. Italy's Eni has assets in Algeria, Congo, Egypt and Mozambique that could deliver additional gas supply quickly.
The EU has tried to aid its dash for non-Russian gas by classifying the fuel as a sustainable energy source in its green finance taxonomy. And the G7 in June weakened its pledge to end new direct public funding for unabated fossil fuels by exempting gas investments that reduce dependency on Russian gas.
For its part, Africa wants a holistic approach to combating climate change, whereby finance, adaptation, and loss and damage are given equal priority alongside mitigation, according to Mahmoud Mohieldin, UN special envoy for financing sustainable development and a Cop 27 champion who served as Egypt's investment minister in 2004-10. Mohieldin outlined African nations' priorities for Cop 27 during Africa Climate Week 2022 in Gabon in August.
The west's "reductionist approach", which limits sustainability to climate action in the form of greenhouse gas cuts and decarbonisation, conflicts with developing nations' priorities and challenges, he said. This approach also reduces the UN's sustainable development goals, neglecting the need to help developing nations move to renewable energy sources, Mohieldin said.
High rates of hunger and water scarcity in Africa were made worse by the Covid-19 pandemic, which drove more than 55mn Africans into extreme poverty, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Food price hikes caused by the Russia-Ukraine war have increased Africa's need for humanitarian aid.
Africa loses 5-15pc/yr of its GDP per capita growth because of climate change and its related impacts, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). In the past 50 years, droughts have claimed the lives of more than half a million people and led to economic losses of more than $70bn on the continent. High water stress is estimated to affect 250mn people in Africa and is expected to displace up to 700mn by 2030. By 2050, extreme weather could cost the continent $50bn/yr, the World Meteorological Organisation says.
Token of trust
In this context, it is no surprise that mobilising climate finance will be a key priority for African nations at Cop 27. Developed countries have yet to meet their 2009 pledge to provide $100bn/yr in climate finance for developing countries by 2020. "While it is not even a fraction of what developing countries need to deal with climate change, it's a token of trust that has to be achieved," Mohieldin said.
Moreover, this amount has to be requantified and scaled up to match the evolving needs of climate action, both for adaptation and mitigation, by developing economies, he added. While financing increased to $83.3bn in 2020 from $58.5bn in 2016, it was still well below the $100bn/yr mark, latest OECD data show, and unlikely to be met before 2023 even under a best-case scenario.
Critics complain that climate finance figures are often hugely inflated as they include non-concessional loans and overseas development aid. The AfDB says Africa faces a climate finance gap of up $1.3 trillion/yr from 2020 to 2030. African nations also need more concessional finance — loans at lower than market value — and less debt. "Currently, debt is the main instrument used for climate finance in developing countries," Mohieldin said. More private-sector investment in developing countries is needed from both domestic and international sources. He called for innovative financial instruments to be introduced to harness climate investment opportunities.
By Elaine Mills
