Argus' agriculture analytics arm Agritel has revised up its estimate for Russian 2023 wheat output following good-to-very good weather conditions in spring observed in key production regions of winter wheat in the south and centre of the country.
In the June edition of its European Agritel Tour (EAT) report, Agritel pegs Russia's 2023 wheat output at 85.7mn t, up from the April estimate of 83.2 but within the previous report's forecasted range of 79mn-87.3mn t.
The upward revision brings Agritel's production estimate back in line with their initial 85.6mn t figure, released in November 2022. Although this falls below the record wheat output of 2022 at 103mn t, it is in line with the strong harvest years of 2017 and 2020.
Winter wheat areas in the south of the country benefited from spring rain, which improved topsoil moisture following a dry winter, while central and Volga regions recovered from excess winter moisture owing to warmer and dryer conditions in April and May.
As a result, Agritel revised up its estimate of national average yields for winter wheat in 2023 to 4.1 t/hectare (ha), compared with its previous estimate of 3.95 t/ha. Although this falls below the 4.5 t/ha estimated by Agritel for the 2022 record crop year, it stands 10.4pc above the 2018-22 yield average.
Agritel also raised its projection for Russia's total winter wheat harvested acreages by 400,000ha from its April projection to 15.4mn ha in June. Coupled with higher expected yields, this took Agritel's estimate for Russian 2023 wheat production to 63.1mn t from 59.4mn t projected in April.
In contrast, Russia's 2023 spring wheat output was trimmed by about 1.2mn t from the April estimate to 22.5mn t on dry weather conditions in Siberia and the Urals, with national average yields revised down to 1.7 t/ha compared with 1.83 t/ha estimated in April.
That said, spring wheat harvested area estimate was raised by 400,000ha from the previous estimate to 13.25mn ha on greater planted areas. In the central region, 10-30pc of winter wheat planted acreages were reseeded with spring wheat following frost damage to winter crops. This is well below the 30-75pc reseeding initially planned by producers in the region.
At the same time, Agritel emphasised that final figures of Russian 2023 wheat crop are conditional on weather conditions in southern regions and Siberia, with dryness needed to support harvest progress in the former and precipitation needed to support spring crop development in the latter.
Agritel also expects lower proportions of 13.5pc and potentially 12.5pc protein content wheat to be produced in Russia this year on unfavourable weather conditions and lower investment in agriculture in the country, with greater volumes of 11.5pc protein grade wheat harvested.
