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ACCC sees gas surplus in Australia’s east coast in 2024

  • Märkte: Natural gas
  • 30.06.23

Australia's east coast market will have a gas surplus of 27PJ (724mn m³) next year despite possible winter gas shortfalls this and next year, the country's competition authority said.

The gas surplus is forecast for next year if the three LNG projects in east Australia export all their currently uncontracted gas, rising to a 90PJ surplus if the plants execute only their currently anticipated spot sales, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said in its interim June 2023 report. East Australia's three LNG projects are the Shell-operated 8.5mn t/yr Queensland Curtis LNG, 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG operated by Australian independent Santos and Australian independent Origin Energy's 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG — all located at the Queensland port of Gladstone.

This follows ACCC's April prediction of a 3PJ deficit this year, revised from a 30PJ shortfall forecast made in January because of increased production and more domestic supply.

Gas production of 1,971PJ is predicted for next year with demand anticipated at 1,944PJ.

But the gas surplus figure relies on increased transport and storage of Queensland gas flowing to southern states, where local output is dwindling. Adequate supply for the July-September quarters of 2023 and 2024 is dependent on whether LNG producers commit additional gas to the domestic market via contracts or time swaps and minimal disruption to deliveries, the ACCC said.

There have been fewer gas supply agreements for next year than in previous years on the back of industry uncertainty over regulatory interventions. Only seven supply agreements were executed between September 2022 and February 2023 for supply next year, a 46pc fall from January-August 2022 and 22pc below the number recorded from September 2021 to February 2022.

"Contracting activity for 2024 supply has slowed down considerably compared to previous years, however, the imminent commencement of the new mandatory code of conduct is expected to provide industry with the certainty they have been seeking to enter into supply contracts into the future," ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey said on 30 June.

The code of conduct caps gas prices at A$12/GJ ($8.15/GJ) to shield the east coast market from volatile international prices. The code will secure additional domestic supply commitments for the east coast market while ensuring LNG producers meet their export commitments, the federal government said in mid-June.

Pricing probe

The ACCC has commenced a review into retailer pricing to consider the impact of the code of conduct on gas consumers, with a report to be handed down in December.

Increased quantities of gas have been sold under short-term contracts for 2023 supply, mainly below the A$12/GJ cap, since the federal government's price cap began in December, the ACCC said, but it will review any contracts that exceed that level to ensure they are within the rules.

The government is proposing that the cap remain in place until July 2025.


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