India drew down its urea inventory by nearly 2mn t in July as the kharif season reached its peak and will now look to rebuild through import tenders ahead of the rabi season.
Stocks fell to 6.3mn t at the end of July as sales last month totalled 4.53mn t, while India's factories produced 2.48mn t, according to provisional data.
IPL will close on 9 August a tender to buy urea on behalf of the government, and is broadly expected to seek more than 1mn t to load by 26 September.
Regardless of the outcome of the tender, at least three more are likely to be called in September-November, as inventory levels would otherwise decline sharply by December. Assuming India secures 1mn t in the tender, inventory would still decline by the end of December to around 2mn t — suggesting another 2-3mn t of urea buying is required.
