Opec has revised up its forecast for Russian liquids supply this year for the second month in a row. The group has also lifted its forecast for Chinese oil demand, although its overall global demand growth projection for 2023 remains unchanged.
Opec now sees non-Opec liquids supply rising by 1.58mn b/d this year, compared with a 1.51mn b/d increase in last month's forecast. The revision in the group's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is largely driven by upgrades to Russian, Brazilian and US supply, partly offset by downgrades for Canada and the North Sea. Opec expects sanctions-hit Russia to produce 10.45mn b/d of liquids in 2023, around 70,000 b/d higher than its previous forecast. It forecasts Russian supply will remain 10.45mn b/d next year.
The latest supply revisions take into account all "production adjustments" announced by Opec+ member countries for 2023. Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier this month announced an extension to their crude supply cuts for a further three months until the end of the year.
Opec expects non-Opec supply to grow by a further 1.38mn b/d in 2024, broadly unchanged from last month's report.
The group has kept its global oil demand growth forecast for this year unchanged at 2.44mn b/d, leaving total demand at a record 102.06mn b/d. Notably, Chinese oil demand growth for 2023 has been upgraded by 50,000 b/d to 970,000 b/d, driven by a 190,000 b/d revision to third-quarter demand. Opec sees oil demand growing by a further 2.25mn b/d next year, also unchanged from last month's MOMR.
Opec's forecast call on its own members' crude has been revised down by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's MOMR for both 2023 and 2024. It now stands at 29.23mn b/d this year and 30.02mn b/d next year. The group produced 27.45mn b/d of crude last month, up by around 110,000 b/d compared with July, according to an average of secondary sources including Argus.
