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US oil output to plateau this decade: ConocoPhillips

  • Märkte: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 19.03.24

US crude production is poised to soar past 14mn b/d before plateauing later this decade, according to leading independent producer ConocoPhillips.

"We're going to pass through 14mn b/d — I don't know if we'll make it to 15 — but we're going to pass through 14mn b/d," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, on Tuesday.

And even though output is set to reach a plateau in coming years, it will stay there "for a long time," Lance said.

After US production surpassed all expectations and hit a record in 2023, Lance said growth was set to moderate this year.

"Our guess this year would be more like 300,000-400,000 b/d growth, primarily coming out of the Permian," he said.

Meanwhile, the spate of shale deals seen over the past six months is a "natural evolution in our business" and is not over yet.

Many operators jumped at the chance to exploit shale in the early days of the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) revolution, and it was only to be expected for some of them to be swept up as the sector matured.

ExxonMobil's proposed $59.9bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources late last year was quickly followed by Chevron's $53bn acquisition of Hess. Occidental Petroleum was next to get in on the act with the $12bn takeover of privately-held producer CrownRock. And earlier this year, Diamondback Energy purchased Endeavor Energy Resources, the most highly sought-after privately held company still standing, in a $26bn cash-and-stock deal.

Despite the record number of deals seen since late last year, there is further to go, according to Lance.

"It's going to continue and it's healthy for the business," Lance said, citing the need to lower the cost of supply and build scale.


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