Regulatory reforms in Brazil and the gradual rise of private competitors have helped reduce state-controlled Petrobras' share of the country's natural gas market to below 70pc, the lowest on record, although progress is still lagging initial market liberalization goals.
The firm's market share fell to 67pc in 2024, down from around 70pc in 2023 and 95pc in 2015, according to hydrocarbon regulator ANP's 2025 statistical yearbook published in late June. Reducing Petrobras' market share was one of the main goals of the 2021 gas law, which also aimed to attract private investment and lower energy costs by encouraging competition.
Petrobras' sales volumes have kept steady for the past 10 years at around 47mn m³/d, even as total production in the country grew to 153mn m³/d in 2024 from 120mn m³/d in 2014 and as total sales on the transport grid rose to 70.15mn m³/d from 50mn m³/d in the same period, according to ANP.
Private companies' market share has grown in tandem with Petrobras' decline. Private participants now account for 33pc of Brazil's natural gas market, up from 29pc a year earlier, with Brazil's northeast — where private gas suppliers hold 71pc of the market — leading the shift with a more dynamic market.
This growing competition has taken its toll on Petrobras' results. Its natural gas sales fell by 4pc in 2024 to 47mn m³/d, while revenue from its gas and low-carbon energy division dropped by 7.4pc. The company's gross profit declined by 11pc in the period, the firm said.
Petrobras may have lost market share but not its relevance and resilience. To respond to this competitive pressure, it has reshaped its commercial strategy, introducing new contract models with greater flexibility in terms of duration, pricing indexation and volume commitments. Recently, chief executive Magda Chambriard said that Petrobras will be in "whatever bidding round that takes place in Brazil", underscoring the firm's stance on maintaining its strong market presence.
A clear example of Petrobras' market resilience is southeastern Sao Paulo state, where it had long held a monopoly as gas distributor Comgas' sole gas supplier. The firm found new competition there in 2023, with companies such as New Fortress Energy, Eneva, Galp and Shell Energy joining Comgas' supplier portfolio. But the state-controlled firm continues to dominate the region, as it signed an 11-year, R56bn ($10bn) contract with Comgas in 2024.
Although the federal government holds a controlling stake in Petrobras, it operates as a publicly traded company, meaning it is driven by commercial goals and shareholder value, not public policy. This creates a complex dynamic: the government promotes market liberalization, while Petrobras must remain competitive and profitable in a more open environment.

