Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projection for 2025 and 2026 broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, maintaining a more bullish view than other major forecasters.
The group expects demand to rise by 1.29mn b/d to 105.13mn b/d in 2025, and by a further 1.28mn b/d to 106.42mn b/d in 2026, according to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published today.
These projections remain significantly higher than those from the IEA and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEA forecasts demand growth of 700,000 b/d in 2025 and 720,000 b/d in 2026, while the EIA sees increases of 800,000 b/d this year and 1.05mn b/d next year.
Crude prices were volatile in the first half of 2025, driven by uncertainty over US trade policy and geopolitical tensions linked to the Israel-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite this, "physical market fundamentals remained robust, with global oil supply and demand broadly balanced", Opec said.
The group also pointed to a year-on-year decline in OECD oil inventories in the first half of 2025, alongside strong crude intake by refiners ahead of the seasonal rise in summer demand.
On the supply side, Opec left its forecast for non-Opec+ liquids output growth unchanged at 810,000 b/d in 2025 and 730,000 b/d in 2026.
Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 349,000 b/d to 41.56mn b/d in June, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026.
