Argus expects French wheat production to recover this year from a catastrophic harvest in 2024, but unfavourable weather conditions are likely to have pressured output towards the low end of production figures in recent years.
Argus projects yields for France's 2025 wheat crop at 7.44 t/hectare (t/ha). This is 3.4pc higher than the Olympic average for 2017-23, which is an average calculated by excluding data for the two years with the highest and lowest yields.
This puts Argus' projection for French wheat production at 33.4mn t, given the 4.49mn ha estimated for wheat acreage by agriculture ministry Agreste. The figure is slightly below the Olympic average for 2017-23 of 35mn t, but represents a sharp jump from 2024, when production fell to 25.6mn t.
Argus spoke with farmers, grain trading firms and co-operatives across France during the week of 17-22 July.
Participants in the survey generally reported a minimum of 11pc protein in this year's crop, as well as above-average test weights and below average moisture content, which all point to a relatively good quality crop in France this year. The harvest is still in its early stages, particularly along the northern coast, so overall quality in the largest wheat-producing regions remains to be seen.
Strong yields offset by smaller planted areas
At 33.4mn t, the outlook for French wheat has shrugged off unfavourable weather conditions throughout the growing season. Wet weather in May was enough to offset potential risks from a relatively dry spring in northern France, which is the country's largest wheat-producing region. Sunnier weather compared with last year provided favourable conditions for the flowering period, although crops came under some heat stress in June, which hampered grain filling.
Wheat yields in northern and southern France are forecast to surpass historical averages, while farmers in central France expect a smaller recovery on the year.
But despite a strong recovery in yields this year, French wheat production is forecast at a relatively modest 33.4mn t because of smaller areas. Wet weather during the planting season meant that areas planted with wheat ahead of the 2025 harvest were the third lowest in 20 years.
