India is likely to end July with close to 2mn t of DAP in stock, marking a rise of about 420,000t from the beginning of the month, due to a surge in imports, according to provisional data.
Domestic production is expected to be about 330,000t of DAP over July. Imports in the month are set to total 1.09mn t, according to Argus line-up data. Together, these will outpace expected July offtake of roughly 1mn t by about 420,000t, raising stocks from an estimated 1.57mn t at the end of June.
The stockbuild will put India in a more comfortable position than in recent months, when DAP inventories reached a low of about 1.1mn t at the end of 2024. The government's department of fertilizers (DoF) now feels secure enough to encourage importers not to buy DAP at higher than $810/t cfr — the price at which several sales concluded last week.
By paying attractive prices, and through deals settled by the DoF with Morocco and Saudi Arabia, importers have managed to boost DAP imports.
The DAP import line-up for April-July now stands at 2.16mn t. This is up by 44pc compared with arrivals at the same time last year. And 562,000t is already lined up for arrival in August, well ahead of the 210,000t which arrived in August 2024.
But India's domestic DAP production remains similar to last year because producers are still focusing on making NPKs and NPS instead of DAP because of better margins. By the end of July, India will have produced about 1.37mn t of DAP since the beginning of April.
The lack of DAP in the market has forced some farmers to meet their demand for phosphate with alternative products, such as NPKs, NPS, TSP or SSP. April-July DAP offtake is expected to reach 2.55mn t, lagging the 2.94mn t sold over the same period last year. But as DAP becomes more available in the domestic market, offtake is likely to draw closer to usual levels. April-July DAP offtake averaged 3.26mn t in 2020-23.
Importers will need to maintain a high rate if India is to begin the rabi season in October with comfortable DAP stocks, and if domestic production is inclined to remain steady.
