Australia's cattle herd expands, slaughter to rise

Australia's cattle herd has expanded, and cattle slaughter is expected to rise in 2025, according to revised projections by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).

The MLA estimated Australia's national cattle herd at 31mn head as at 30 June, about 890,000 head above its previous forecast in March but slightly below the 2024 herd. The MLA expects the national herd to remain stable through to 2026, before falling slightly to 30.3mn t in 2027.

Expected cattle slaughter in 2025 was revised upwards almost half a million head to 9mn head, partly driven by strong cattle supply and processing capacity. Favourable seasonal conditions, which are supporting higher stocking rates and throughput in northern cattle regions, are expected to continue. But slaughter is expected to ease in southern regions, as graziers focus on maintaining their core breeding herds after 18 months of dry conditions.

Beef production is forecast upward from March to a record 2.79mn t carcase weight equivalent (CWE) in 2025, supported by higher herd turn off capacity and stable carcase weights. The rise in cattle slaughter and beef production will likely raise tallow supply. But beef output is forecast to ease in 2026 and 2027 as slaughter rates decline slightly.

The 12-month rolling average for the female slaughter rate (FSR) has averaged 53pc over the last 12 months. This is well above the long-term average of 47pc and the threshold that typically indicates a herd liquidation.

The increased FSR reflected a shift in the herd profile, partly because producers are increasingly culling older and unproductive cows and retaining core breeding stock, the MLA said.

By Edward Dunlop